Daniel Merida Aguilar and Henrique Rocha will clash against each other in the final of the Perugia Challenger for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 8:30 pm on CENTER COURT. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniel Merida Aguilar who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Daniel Merida Aguilar is the pick to win this match.
Daniel Merida Aguilar -> 1.75
Henrique Rocha -> 1.94
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Prediction and head to head Daniel Merida Aguilar vs. Henrique Rocha
This will be the 3rd time that Daniel Merida Aguilar and Henrique Rocha clash against each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Rocha (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they fought against each other, Rocha won 6-4 4-1 ret. in the 2nd round in M25 Martos back in 2023.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
29 - 14win/loss
41
39
WLWWLWWLWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 44-20 | 20-8 | 23-9 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 50-25 | 15-5 | 35-16 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 57-33 | 17-9 | 40-23 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-31 | 16-13 | 20-17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 29-26 | 8-9 | 21-16 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 86 (career-high), the Spaniard got to the final after defeating Gianluca Cadenasso 6-2 ret., Liam Broady 6-4 6-2, Pablo Llamas Ruiz 6-1 6-2 and Andrea Pellegrino 6-3 5-7 6-3.
In the semifinal, The Spaniard defeated Pellegrino (6-3 5-7 6-3). During the match, Merida Aguilar scored 110 points vs Pellegrino’s 103. The Spaniard was very aggressive to blast 46 winners.
Talking about the service games, Merida Aguilar scored just 1 ace in the match and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Daniel Merida Aguilar was quite effective on serve to win 71% (46/65) of his 1st serve and 51% (18/35) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. The Spaniard broke Pellegrino 4 times after converting 31% of his break points (4/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Daniel has conceded 1 set in this event to win 56% of the points he played.
ATP Perugia Challenger - Daniel Merida Aguilar's projected path
Merida Aguilar has a solid win-loss record in the last 7 years having won 60% of his matches (215-145). 17-7 on clay in 2026. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Merida Aguilar has a composed145-92 match record in the last 7 years on clay.
His best result of the season was conquering the title the Tenerife 1 Challenger where he beat Francesco Maestrelli in the final 6-2 6-4.
Merida Aguilar has an overall 29-13 win-loss record in 2026, 17-7 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Perugia Challenger
Merida Aguilar has never competed in this tournament before.
Henrique Rocha
24 - 13win/loss
116
116
LWWLWLWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30-23 | 4-6 | 24-12 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 34-29 | 16-9 | 16-17 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 40-33 | 10-7 | 27-22 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 64-27 | 47-11 | 17-14 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 18-18 | 8-9 | 10-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 119, Henrique reached the final after defeating Enrico Dalla Valle 6-4 7-6(7), Dusan Lajovic 6-4 7-5, Remy Bertola 6-2 4-6 6-2 and Timofey Skatov 6-4 6-2.
In the semifinal, Rocha had a good straight sets win against Skatov (6-4 6-2). During the match Rocha scored 64 points vs Skatov’s 42. Rocha was pretty aggressive to blast 25 winners.
About the serving games, Rocha scored 4 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Henrique Rocha was very efficient on serve to win 83% (25/30) of his 1st serve and 56% (10/18) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Rocha broke Skatov 4 times after converting 57% of his break points (4/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Portuguese has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
ATP Perugia Challenger - Henrique Rocha's projected path
His best result of the current year was winning the title the Brasilia Challenger where he beat Adolfo Daniel Vallejo in the final 6-4 6-4.
Henrique has a composed 23-13 win-loss record in 2026, 21-9 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Merida Aguilar | Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 71 | 89 |
| Pts | 267-205 | 298-255 |
| Total Points | 472 | 553 |
| Winners | 112 | 120 |
| %Winners | 42% | 40% |
Both Merida Aguilar and Rocha played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Daniel Merida Aguilar dropped 1 set, while Henrique Rocha lost 1 set. Talking about their workload, Merida Aguilar and Rocha have played the same amount of sets 9. However, Merida Aguilar played 18 games less than Rocha. Daniel scored 112 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Rocha bagged 120 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Merida Aguilar | Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 9 | 11 |
| Avg per match | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| 1st in | 153/231 | 157/274 |
| %1st in | 66% | 57% |
| 1st pts | 112/153 | 120/157 |
| %1st pts | 73% | 76% |
| 2nd pts | 44/78 | 59/117 |
| %2nd pts | 56% | 50% |
Merida Aguilar fired 9 aces (2.3 per match). Rocha made 11 aces (2.8 per match). Merida Aguilar won 73% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Rocha won 76% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 50% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Merida Aguilar | Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 16 |
| Converted | 15/34 | 16/30 |
| % Converted | 44% | 53% |
| Conceded | 17 | 22 |
| Saved | 13 | 15 |
| % Saved | 76% | 68% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 7 |
Daniel broke his opponents 15 times with a 44% conversion rate. Merida Aguilar surrendered his serve 4 times and he saved 76% of the break points that he conceded. The Portuguese broke his opponents 16 times with a 53% conversion rate. The Portuguese conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 68% of the break points that he conceded.
| Merida Aguilar | ||||||
| R1 Cadenasso |
R2 Broady |
1/4 Llamas Ruiz |
1/2 Pellegrino |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 ret. | 6-4 6-2 | 6-1 6-2 | 6-3 5-7 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 8 | 18 | 15 | 30 | 71 | |
| pts | 33-19 | 63-47 | 61-36 | 110-103 | 267-205 | |
| Total points | 52 | 110 | 97 | 213 | 472 | |
| Winners | 10 | 32 | 24 | 46 | 112 | |
| %Winners | 30% | 51% | 39% | 42% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 15/25 | 41/59 | 32/47 | 65/100 | 153/231 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 69% | 68% | 65% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 10/15 | 32/41 | 24/32 | 46/65 | 112/153 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 78% | 75% | 71% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/10 | 8/18 | 11/15 | 18/35 | 44/78 | |
| % 2nd pts | 70% | 44% | 73% | 51% | 56% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 15 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 4/6 | 4/8 | 4/13 | 15/34 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 67% | 50% | 31% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 17 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 6/7 | 3/3 | 2/4 | 13 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 86% | 100% | 50% | 76% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
| Rocha | ||||||
| R1 Dalla Valle |
R2 Lajovic |
1/4 Bertola |
1/2 Skatov |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-67 | 6-4 7-5 | 6-2 4-6 6-2 | 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 22 | 26 | 18 | 89 | |
| pts | 80-79 | 75-67 | 79-67 | 64-42 | 298-255 | |
| Total points | 159 | 142 | 146 | 106 | 553 | |
| Winners | 35 | 27 | 33 | 25 | 120 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 36% | 42% | 39% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 17 | |
| 1st in | 46/82 | 37/70 | 44/74 | 30/48 | 157/274 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 53% | 59% | 63% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 35/46 | 27/37 | 33/44 | 25/30 | 120/157 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 73% | 75% | 83% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/36 | 17/33 | 13/30 | 10/18 | 59/117 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 52% | 43% | 56% | 50% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 16 | |
| Converted | 2/6 | 4/9 | 6/8 | 4/7 | 16/30 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 44% | 75% | 57% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 22 | |
| Saved | 6/7 | 3/5 | 4/7 | 2/3 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 86% | 60% | 57% | 67% | 68% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | |
Head 2 Head
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WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Perugia Challenger
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