Elise Mertens and Tereza Valentova will fight against each other in the 2nd round of the Japan Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 2:00 pm on CENTER. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Tereza Valentova who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Tereza Valentova is the pick to win this match.
Tereza Valentova -> 1.8
Elise Mertens -> 2.01
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Prediction and head to head Elise Mertens vs. Tereza Valentova
There is no head to head record between Elise Mertens and Tereza Valentova since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.
Elise Mertens
36 - 19win/loss
20
12
LWWLLLWWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 36-20 | 17-13 | 6-5 | 5-0 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 28-25 | 18-15 | 6-5 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 30-22 | 24-16 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 29-23 | 19-14 | 4-3 | 2-2 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-20 | 20-10 | 9-5 | 2-2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 21, the Belgian reached the 2nd round after defeating Cristina Bucsa 7-6(5) 6-3.
In the 1st round, The Belgian had a good straight sets win against Bucsa (7-65 6-3). During the match, Mertens scored 77 points vs Bucsa’s 69. Elise was pretty aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Talking about the service games, Mertens bagged 7 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Elise Mertens was very effective on serve to win 82% (27/33) of her 1st serve and 58% (22/38) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Mertens broke Bucsa once after converting 20% of her break points (1/5).
Mertens has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 62% of her matches (358-223). 17-12 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Mertens has a composed 204-124 match record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the year was winning the title in Singapore where she defeated Ann Li in the final 6-1 6-4 and in Hertogenbosch where she beat Elena Gabriela Ruse in the final 6-3 7-6(4).
The Belgian has a compiled 36-19 win-loss record in 2025, 17-12 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Osaka
Tereza Valentova
46 - 11win/loss
60
55
LWWWWWWLLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 49-12 | 18-4 | 11-3 | 18-4 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 38-5 | 17-1 | 12-2 | 9-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 8-4 | 0-1 | 8-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-1 |
Ranked no. 78, Tereza reached the 2nd round after beating Alina Charaeva 6-1 6-2, Greetje Minnen 4-6 6-4 6-2 and Alexandra Eala 6-1 6-2.
In the 1st round, Valentova had a good straight sets win against Eala (6-1 6-2). During the match Valentova scored 69 points vs Eala’s 53. Tereza was extremely aggressive to blast 28 winners.
Talking about serving, Valentova made 3 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Tereza Valentova lost the serve once and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Valentova put 66% of her first serves in, winning 64% (28/44) of the points behind her 1st serve and 43% (10/23) on the 2nd serve. Tereza broke Eala 6 times after converting 60% of her break points (6/10).
Her best result of the season was winning the title the W75 Porto where she defeated Nastasja Mariana Schunk in the final 6-3 6-4 and the W75 Murska Sobota where she defeated Mariam Bolkvadze in the final 1-6 6-3 6-2 and the Grado where she beat Barbora Palicova in the final 6-2 4-6 6-1 and the Porto where she defeated Lanlana Tararudee in the final 6-4 6-2.
Valentova has a composed 46-11 win-loss record in 2025, 15-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Osaka
Valentova has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Mertens | Valentova |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 22 | 58 |
| Pts | 77-69 | 220-168 |
| Total Points | 146 | 388 |
| Winners | 27 | 89 |
| %Winners | 35% | 40% |
Mertens played 1 match while Valentova competed in 3 matches. Valentova started her run from the qualifications while Mertens had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Tereza Valentova surrendered 1 set while Elise Mertens hasn’t dropped a set so far. Mertens has played 5 set(s) less than Valentova (2 vs 7). Therefore, Mertens played 36 games less than Valentova. Mertens scored 27 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Tereza struck 89 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Mertens | Valentova |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 7 | 16 |
| Avg per match | 7 | 5.3 |
| 1st in | 33/71 | 115/195 |
| %1st in | 46% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 27/33 | 89/115 |
| %1st pts | 82% | 77% |
| 2nd pts | 22/38 | 41/80 |
| %2nd pts | 58% | 51% |
Mertens fired 7 aces . Valentova bagged 16 aces (5.3 per match). Mertens won 82% points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Valentova won 77% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Mertens | Valentova |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 1 | 13 |
| Converted | 1/5 | 13/23 |
| % Converted | 20% | 57% |
| Conceded | 0 | 14 |
| Saved | 0 | 12 |
| % Saved | 0% | 86% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 |
Mertens broke her opponent once with a 20% conversion rate. Elise was rock solid on her serve as she has never conceded a single service game after saving 0 break points. Tereza broke her opponents 13 times with a 57% conversion rate. Tereza conceded her serve twice and she saved 86% of the break points that she conceded.
| Mertens | |||
| R1 Bucsa |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-65 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 22 | |
| pts | 77-69 | 77-69 | |
| Total points | 146 | 146 | |
| Winners | 27 | 27 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 7 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 33/71 | 33/71 | |
| % 1st in | 46% | 46% | |
| 1st pts | 27/33 | 27/33 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | 82% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/38 | 22/38 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 58% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 1 | 1 | |
| Converted | 1/5 | 1/5 | |
| Converted % | 20% | 20% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 0 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 0 | |
| Saved % | – | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Valentova | |||||
| Q1 Charaeva |
Q3 Minnen |
R1 Eala |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-2 | 4-6 6-4 6-2 | 6-1 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 28 | 15 | 58 | |
| pts | 66-44 | 85-71 | 69-53 | 220-168 | |
| Total points | 110 | 156 | 122 | 388 | |
| Winners | 24 | 37 | 28 | 89 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 44% | 41% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 7 | 6 | 3 | 16 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 30/54 | 41/74 | 44/67 | 115/195 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 55% | 66% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 24/30 | 37/41 | 28/44 | 89/115 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 90% | 64% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/24 | 18/33 | 10/23 | 41/80 | |
| % 2nd pts | 54% | 55% | 43% | 51% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 3/6 | 6/10 | 13/23 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 50% | 60% | 57% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 3 | 6 | 14 | |
| Saved | 5/5 | 2/3 | 5/6 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 67% | 83% | 250% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLLLWWLW
LWWWWWWLLW Tennis Scores in Osaka
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- Naomi OsakaOsaka – Suzan LamensLamens (7-66 3-6 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Olga DanilovicDanilovic – Ashlyn KruegerKrueger (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jaqueline CristianCristian – Jessica Bouzas ManeiroBouzas Maneiro (0-6 6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Oscar OtteOtte (6-3 1-0 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Johannes HaerteisHaerteis – Rudolf MollekerMolleker (3-6 7-5 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Tobias KamkeKamke – Stefano TravagliaTravaglia (6-3 7-64) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Javier Barranco CosanoBarranco Cosano – Hugo DellienDellien (6-1 7-63) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jozef KovalikKovalik – Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero (6-1 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Mats MoraingMoraing – Emil RuusuvuoriRuusuvuori (6-74 6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Marco TrungellitiTrungelliti – Gonzalo EscobarEscobar (7-68 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Sebastian OfnerOfner (6-1 5-7 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Casper RuudRuud – Yannick HanfmannHanfmann (6-75 7-5 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Henri LaaksonenLaaksonen – Geoffrey BlancaneauxBlancaneaux (6-3 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Lukas RosolRosol – Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor (7-5 2-6 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Thiago Moura MonteiroMoura Monteiro – Steven DiezDiez (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Gianluca MagerMager – Lucas MiedlerMiedler (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Pedro CachinCachin – Kimmer CoppejansCoppejans (6-0 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak – Carlos TabernerTaberner (7-62 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Attila BalazsBalazs – Elias YmerYmer (6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Elise MertensMertens – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Ann LiLi – Rebecca SramkovaSramkova (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Dalma GalfiGalfi – Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marie BouzkovaBouzkova – Viktorija GolubicGolubic (3-2) – H2H and prediction
- Naomi OsakaOsaka – Jaqueline CristianCristian (0-0) – H2H and prediction
