Aryna Sabalenka and Liudmila Samsonova will clash against each other in the quarter of the BNP Paribas Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 5:00 pm on STADIUM 1. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.146
Liudmila Samsonova -> 5.55
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Liudmila Samsonova
This will be the 5th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Liudmila Samsonova fight against each other. The head to head is 2-2 for Sabalenka and Samsonova (see full H2H stats),but they are 2-2 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Sabalenka won 6-3 6-2 in the quarter in Cincinnati back in 2024.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Liudmila Samsonova – Cincinnati 17-August-2024
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 63-12 | 35-6 | 17-3 | 4-1 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 the Belarussian reached the quarter after beating Unknown Player bye, Mccartney Kessler 7-6(4) 6-3, Lucia Bronzetti 6-1 6-2 and Sonay Kartal 6-1 6-2.
In the 4th round, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Kartal (6-1 6-2). During the match, Sabalenka scored 60 points vs Kartal’s 39. Sabalenka was quite aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka recorded 2 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve once and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 67% of her first serves in, winning 74% (23/31) of the points behind her 1st serve and 47% (7/15) on the 2nd serve. The Belarussian broke Kartal 5 times after converting 63% of her break points (5/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belarussian hasn’t dropped yet a set in this event to win 59% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 69% of her matches (389-171). 15-3 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has an aggregate 242-95 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the year was winning the title in Brisbane where she beat Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2.
Aryna has a composed 15-3 win-loss record in 2025, 15-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Liudmila Samsonova
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 30-23 | 15-15 | 8-5 | 0-0 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 26-23 | 12-15 | 6-5 | 0-0 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 34-24 | 25-15 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-17 | 26-10 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 39-22 | 15-9 | 6-9 | 8-3 | 10-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 25, the Russian got to the quarter after defeating Unknown Player bye, Caty McNally 7-6(8) 6-4, Daria Kasatkina 2-6 6-3 6-2 and Jasmine Paolini 6-0 6-4.
In the 4th round, Samsonova had a good straight sets win against Paolini (6-0 6-4). During the match Samsonova scored 60 points vs Paolini’s 35. Samsonova was quite aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Talking about serving, Samsonova scored 4 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Liudmila Samsonova was pretty effective on serve to win 74% (23/31) of her 1st serve and 67% (8/12) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Samsonova broke Paolini 5 times after converting 71% of her break points (5/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Samsonova has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
The Russian’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Adelaide.
Samsonova has a compiled 9-6 win-loss record in 2025, 9-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, her best result was reaching the 4th round in 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 52 | 64 |
| Pts | 197-139 | 213-174 |
| Total Points | 336 | 387 |
| Winners | 75 | 83 |
| %Winners | 38% | 39% |
Both Sabalenka and Samsonova played 3 matches. At the moment, Liudmila Samsonova dropped 1 set while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t dropped a set so far. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Samsonova (6 vs 7). Therefore, Sabalenka played 12 games less than Samsonova. The Belarussian scored 75 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, The Russian blasted 83 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 10 | 12 |
| Avg per match | 3.3 | 4 |
| 1st in | 95/150 | 115/192 |
| %1st in | 63% | 60% |
| 1st pts | 75/95 | 83/115 |
| %1st pts | 79% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 30/55 | 35/77 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 45% |
Sabalenka scored 10 aces (3.3 per match). Samsonova managed to score 12 aces (4 per match). Sabalenka won 79% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Samsonova won 72% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 45% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 12 | 15 |
| Converted | 12/23 | 15/24 |
| % Converted | 52% | 63% |
| Conceded | 5 | 19 |
| Saved | 3 | 10 |
| % Saved | 60% | 53% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 9 |
Aryna broke her opponents 12 times with a 52% conversion rate. The Belarussian conceded her serve twice and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded. Samsonova broke her opponents 15 times with a 63% conversion rate. Ludmilla conceded her serve 9 times and she saved 53% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||||
| R2 Kessler |
R3 Bronzetti |
R4 Kartal |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-64 6-3 | 6-1 6-2 | 6-1 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 15 | 15 | 52 | |
| pts | 73-59 | 64-41 | 60-39 | 197-139 | |
| Total points | 132 | 105 | 99 | 336 | |
| Winners | 31 | 21 | 23 | 75 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 33% | 38% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 36/57 | 28/47 | 31/46 | 95/150 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 60% | 67% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 31/36 | 21/28 | 23/31 | 75/95 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 75% | 74% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/21 | 10/19 | 7/15 | 30/55 | |
| % 2nd pts | 62% | 53% | 47% | 55% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | |
| Converted | 2/3 | 5/12 | 5/8 | 12/23 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 42% | 63% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 2/3 | 1/2 | 3 | |
| Saved % | – | 67% | 50% | 39% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Samsonova | |||||
| R2 McNally |
R3 Kasatkina |
R4 Paolini |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-68 6-4 | 2-6 6-3 6-2 | 6-0 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 25 | 16 | 64 | |
| pts | 71-66 | 82-73 | 60-35 | 213-174 | |
| Total points | 137 | 155 | 95 | 387 | |
| Winners | 28 | 32 | 23 | 83 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 39% | 38% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 1 | 7 | 4 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 33/64 | 51/85 | 31/43 | 115/192 | |
| % 1st in | 52% | 60% | 72% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 28/33 | 32/51 | 23/31 | 83/115 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 63% | 74% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/31 | 15/34 | 8/12 | 35/77 | |
| % 2nd pts | 39% | 44% | 67% | 45% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 6 | 5 | 15 | |
| Converted | 4/8 | 6/9 | 5/7 | 15/24 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 67% | 71% | 63% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 13 | 2 | 19 | |
| Saved | 1/4 | 8/13 | 1/2 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 25% | 62% | 50% | 46% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 5 | 1 | 9 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWLWWWW
LWLWWLLWLW Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Asia Muhammad/Demi SchuursMuhammad/Demi Schuurs – Timea Babos/Nicole MelicharBabos/Nicole Melichar (6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Giovanni FonioFonio – Bogdan Ionut ApostolIonut Apostol (6-2 7-62) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Thomas FancuttFancutt – Maxime ChazalChazal (w/o) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Matheus Pucinelle De AlmeidaPucinelle De Almeida – Alexander IgoshinIgoshin (6-4 2-6 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Albert Alcaraz IvorraAlcaraz Ivorra – Alexandar LazarovLazarov (6-4 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Belinda BencicBencic – Madison KeysKeys (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-6) – H2H and prediction
