H2H, prediction of Carlos Alcaraz vs Luca Nardi in Doha with odds, preview, pick | 19th February 2025

PREVIEW. Doha. Alcaraz and Nardi will clash against each other in the 2nd round of the Qatar ExxonMobil Open. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their next match on Wednesday the 19th of February

Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Luca Nardi

Carlos Alcaraz and Luca Nardi will face off in the 2nd round of the Qatar ExxonMobil Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 8:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.027
Luca Nardi -> 12.5

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Soccer Tonic Predictions

Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Luca Nardi

There is no head to head record between Carlos Alcaraz and Luca Nardi since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.

Carlos Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz

10 - 1win/loss

Hard
5-1
I Hard
5-0
Rank
2
High
1
LWWWWWWWWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 48-6 10-4 22-1 5-0 11-1 0-0
2024 54-13 22-5 17-4 7-3 8-1 0-0
2023 65-12 26-6 25-3 2-3 12-0 0-0
2022 57-13 21-4 27-4 6-4 3-1 0-0
2021 48-19 15-8 22-7 10-3 1-1 0-0

Ranked no. 3, Alcaraz got to the 2nd round after beating Marin Cilic 6-4 6-4.

In the 1st round, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against Cilic (6-4 6-4). During the match, Alcaraz scored 73 points vs Cilic’s 61. Carlos was exceptionally aggressive to blast 26 winners.

Regarding the service games, Alcaraz managed to score 4 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Carlos Alcaraz lost the serve once and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Alcaraz put 63% of his first serves in, winning 70% (26/37) of the points behind his 1st serve and 68% (15/22) on the 2nd serve. Alcaraz broke Cilic 3 times after converting 30% of his break points (3/10).

Alcaraz has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 79% of his matches (297-79). 5-1 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Alcaraz has a composed102-28 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.

His best result of the season was winning the title in Rotterdam where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2.

The Spaniard has a composed 10-1 win-loss record in 2025, 5-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Doha

Alcaraz has never competed in this tournament before.

Alcaraz
Doha
Alcaraz's Record

Luca Nardi

Luca Nardi
Luca Nardi

12 - 5win/loss

Hard
6-2
I Hard
6-3
Rank
96
High
67
LLLWWWLLLW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 23-22 9-8 8-9 6-3 0-2 0-0
2024 32-27 14-14 8-5 9-4 1-4 0-0
2023 41-36 20-10 8-13 12-12 1-1 0-0
2022 33-20 5-2 11-10 17-8 0-0 0-0
2021 33-24 3-3 26-13 4-8 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 85, Nardi got to the 2nd round after beating Yasutaka Uchiyama 6-4 6-4, Mikhail Kukushkin 6-4 6-4 and Zhizhen Zhang 6-4 6-3.

In the 1st round, Luca had a good straight sets win against Zhang (6-4 6-3). During the match Nardi scored 62 points vs Zhang’s 50. Luca was pretty aggressive to blast 29 winners.

Talking about serving, Nardi fired 5 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Luca Nardi was extremely effective on serve to win 76% (29/38) of his 1st serve and 52% (11/21) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Luca broke Zhang 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).

Luca’s best result of the year was getting to the final in the Koblenz Challenger.

Nardi has a composed 12-5 win-loss record in 2025, 6-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Nardi
Doha
Nardi's Record
Bonus
Soccer Tonic Predictions

H2H Performance in the tournament

C.Alcaraz
L.Nardi
1h:39
1h:39
Time on court​
!
4h:47
4h:47
1h:39
1h:39
Last match​
1h:16
1h:16
1
1
Match played
!
3
3
20
20
Games Played​
59
59
2
2
Set played​​
6
6
73
73
Total points​
202
202
73
73
Avg point​
67.3
67.3
26
26
Winners
84
84
26
26
Avg Winners​
28
28
36%
36%
Ratio winners
42%
42%
-- Serve --
4
4
Aces
12
12
4
4
Avg Aces
4
4
2
2
Double Faults
6
6
2
2
Avg Double Faults
2
2
26/37
26/37
1st won total​
84/120
84/120
70%
70%
1st won %
70%
70%
15/22
15/22
2nd won total​
37/65
37/65
!
68%
68%
2nd won %
57%
57%
-- Break Points --
3/10
3/10
BP won
10/23
10/23
3/10
3/10
Avg BP won
3.3/7.7
3.3/7.7
30%
30%
Won
43%
43%
6
6
Conceded
10
10
6
6
Avg Conceded
3.3
3.3
1
1
Broken
4
4
1
1
Avg Broken
1.3
1.3
5
5
Saved
6
6

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Alcaraz Nardi
Match played 1 3
Tot Set 2 6
Tot Games 20 59
Pts 73-61 202-171
Total Points 134 373
Winners 26 84
%Winners 36% 42%

Alcaraz played 1 match while Nardi competed in 3 matches. Nardi started his run from the qualifications while Alcaraz had a direct access to the main draw. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Alcaraz has played 4 set(s) less than Nardi (2 vs 6). Therefore, Alcaraz played 39 games less than Nardi. The Spaniard scored 26 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Luca recorded 84 winners (42%).

Serve Performance

Serve Alcaraz Nardi
Aces 4 12
Avg per match 4 4
1st in 37/59 120/185
%1st in 63% 65%
1st pts 26/37 84/120
%1st pts 70% 70%
2nd pts 15/22 37/65
%2nd pts 68% 57%

Alcaraz made 4 aces . Nardi scored 12 aces (4 per match). Alcaraz won 70% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 68% of the points. On the other side, Nardi won 70% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Alcaraz Nardi
Won 3 10
Converted 3/10 10/23
% Converted 30% 43%
Conceded 6 10
Saved 5 6
% Saved 83% 60%
Times Broken 1 4

Alcaraz broke his opponent 3 times with a 30% conversion rate. The Spaniard surrendered his serve once and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded. Nardi broke his opponents 10 times with a 43% conversion rate. Luca conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded.

Alcaraz
R1
Cilic
Total
Score 6-4 6-4
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 20 20
pts 73-61 73-61
Total points 134 134
Winners 26 26
%Winners 36% 36%
SERVE
Aces 4 4
Double Faults 2 2
1st in 37/59 37/59
% 1st in 63% 63%
1st pts 26/37 26/37
% 1st pts 70% 70%
2nd pts 15/22 15/22
% 2nd pts 68% 68%
Breaks
Won 3 3
Converted 3/10 3/10
Converted % 30% 30%
Conceded 6 6
Saved 5/6 5
Saved % 83% 83%
Times Broken 1 1
Nardi
Q1
Uchiyama
Q3
Kukushkin
R1
Zhang
Total
Score 6-4 6-4 6-4 6-4 6-4 6-3
Tot Set 2 2 2 6
Tot Games 20 20 19 59
pts 67-54 73-67 62-50 202-171
Total points 121 140 112 373
Winners 29 26 29 84
%Winners 43% 36% 47% 42%
SERVE
Aces 3 4 5 12
Double Faults 2 2 2 6
1st in 38/57 44/69 38/59 120/185
% 1st in 67% 64% 64% 65%
1st pts 29/38 26/44 29/38 84/120
% 1st pts 76% 59% 76% 70%
2nd pts 13/19 13/25 11/21 37/65
% 2nd pts 68% 52% 52% 57%
Breaks
Won 2 5 3 10
Converted 2/7 5/11 3/5 10/23
Converted % 29% 45% 60% 43%
Conceded 0 8 2 10
Saved 0/0 5/8 1/2 6
Saved % 63% 50% 113%
Times Broken 0 3 1 4

Head 2 Head

Win Loss
Alcaraz
LWWWWWWWWW
Nardi
LLLWWWLLLW
2025 2024 2023
48 - 6
23 - 22
10-4
Hard
9-8
5-0
I Hard
6-3
22-1
Clay
8-9
11-1
Grass
0-2

Tennis Scores in Doha

See Updated Draw
Soccer Tonic Predictions
Bonus

Upcoming matches in the draw