Madison Keys and Elena Gabriela Ruse will fight against each other in the 2nd round of the Australian Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 7:00 pm on Margaret Court Arena. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.103
Elena Gabriela Ruse -> 6.8
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Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Elena Gabriela Ruse
There is no head to head record between Madison Keys and Elena Gabriela Ruse since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.
Madison Keys
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 37-15 | 24-6 | 9-4 | 0-2 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 14, Keys reached the 2nd round after beating Ann Li 6-4 7-5.
In the 1st round, Keys had a good straight sets win against Li (6-4 7-5). During the match, Keys scored 65 points vs Li’s 58. The American was pretty aggressive to blast 32 winners.
Talking about the service games, Keys recorded 6 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Madison Keys was exceptionally effective on serve to win 73% (32/44) of her 1st serve and 56% (10/18) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Madison was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Li 3 times.
Keys has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 65% of her matches (235-124). 8-1 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Keys has an aggregate 141-74 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Adelaide where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1.
Keys has an aggregate 8-1 win-loss record in 2025, 8-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Elena Gabriela Ruse
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31-19 | 12-11 | 7-4 | 6-2 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 36-20 | 12-5 | 17-8 | 4-5 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 31-20 | 18-10 | 6-6 | 5-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 17-23 | 13-10 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 31-16 | 9-5 | 20-8 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 125, the Romanian got to the 2nd round after beating Leonie Kung 6-1 6-1, Anna-Lena Friedsam 3-6 6-3 6-4, Emina Bektas 6-2 7-5 and Irina-Camelia Begu 6-4 6-0.
In the 1st round, Gabriela Ruse had a good straight sets win against Begu (6-4 6-0). During the match Gabriela Ruse scored 60 points vs Begu’s 38. The Romanian was extremely aggressive to blast 20 winners.
Talking about serving, Gabriela Ruse fired 3 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Elena Gabriela Ruse was extremely efficient on serve to win 77% (20/26) of her 1st serve and 67% (12/18) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Gabriela Ruse broke Begu 5 times after converting 63% of her break points (5/8).
Elena has a compiled 4-0 win-loss record in 2025, 4-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Keys | Gabriela Ruse |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 22 | 78 |
| Pts | 65-58 | 279-210 |
| Total Points | 123 | 489 |
| Winners | 32 | 95 |
| %Winners | 49% | 34% |
Keys played 1 match while Gabriela Ruse competed in 4 matches. Gabriela Ruse started her run from the qualifications while Keys had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Elena Gabriela Ruse dropped 1 set while Madison Keys hasn’t conceded a set so far. Keys has played 7 set(s) less than Gabriela Ruse (2 vs 9). Therefore, Keys played 56 games less than Gabriela Ruse. The American scored 32 winners (49% of the total points). On the other side, The Romanian managed to score 95 winners (34%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Keys | Gabriela Ruse |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 6 | 13 |
| Avg per match | 6 | 3.3 |
| 1st in | 44/62 | 128/231 |
| %1st in | 71% | 55% |
| 1st pts | 32/44 | 95/128 |
| %1st pts | 73% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 10/18 | 59/103 |
| %2nd pts | 56% | 57% |
Keys struck 6 aces . Gabriela Ruse managed to score 13 aces (3.3 per match). Keys won 73% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Gabriela Ruse won 74% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 57% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Keys | Gabriela Ruse |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 3 | 19 |
| Converted | 3/3 | 19/38 |
| % Converted | 100% | 50% |
| Conceded | 4 | 17 |
| Saved | 3 | 11 |
| % Saved | 75% | 65% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 6 |
The American broke her opponent 3 times with a 100% conversion rate. The American surrendered her serve once and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded. The Romanian broke her opponents 19 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Romanian conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 65% of the break points that she conceded.
| Keys | |||
| R1 Li |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 22 | |
| pts | 65-58 | 65-58 | |
| Total points | 123 | 123 | |
| Winners | 32 | 32 | |
| %Winners | 49% | 49% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 6 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 44/62 | 44/62 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 71% | |
| 1st pts | 32/44 | 32/44 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/18 | 10/18 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/3 | 3/3 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 100% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
| Gabriela Ruse | ||||||
| Q1 Kung |
Q2 Friedsam |
Q3 Bektas |
R1 Begu |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-1 | 3-6 6-3 6-4 | 6-2 7-5 | 6-4 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 14 | 28 | 20 | 16 | 78 | |
| pts | 53-22 | 86-83 | 80-67 | 60-38 | 279-210 | |
| Total points | 75 | 169 | 147 | 98 | 489 | |
| Winners | 14 | 30 | 31 | 20 | 95 | |
| %Winners | 26% | 35% | 39% | 33% | 34% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 19/35 | 42/80 | 41/72 | 26/44 | 128/231 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 53% | 57% | 59% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 14/19 | 30/42 | 31/41 | 20/26 | 95/128 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 71% | 76% | 77% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/16 | 17/38 | 18/31 | 12/18 | 59/103 | |
| % 2nd pts | 75% | 45% | 58% | 67% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 19 | |
| Converted | 6/8 | 5/13 | 3/9 | 5/8 | 19/38 | |
| Converted % | 75% | 38% | 33% | 63% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 17 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 1/5 | 8/8 | 2/3 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 20% | 100% | 67% | 187% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
LLLLWWLWWW
WWWWWLWLWL Tennis Scores – Australian Open
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Danka KovinicKovinic – Dayana YastremskaYastremska (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Elena Gabriela RuseGabriela Ruse (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Destanee AiavaAiava – Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Katie BoulterBoulter (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Caroline DolehideDolehide (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Renata ZarazuaZarazua – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Xiyu WangWang (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Ons JabeurJabeur – Maria Camila Osorio SerranoCamila Osorio Serrano (4-0) – H2H and prediction
- Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Shuai ZhangZhang (5-2) – H2H and prediction
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- Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
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- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Clara TausonTauson (0-0) – H2H and prediction
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