Madison Keys and Liudmila Samsonova will face off in the semifinal of the Adelaide International for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 2:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.5
Liudmila Samsonova -> 2.59
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Â
Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Liudmila Samsonova
This will be the 6th time that Madison Keys and Liudmila Samsonova square off. The head to head is 4-1 for Keys (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Keys won 6-1 6-3 in the semifinal in Strasbourg back in 2024.
Highlights Madison Keys vs Liudmila Samsonova – Strasbourg 24-May-2024
Madison Keys
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5-1 | 5-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 20, Keys reached the semifinal after beating Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-2 6-1, Jelena Ostapenko 3-6 6-4 6-3 and Daria Kasatkina 6-1 6-3.
In the quarter, The American had a good straight sets win against Kasatkina (6-1 6-3). During the match, Keys scored 61 points vs Kasatkina’s 36. Madison was quite aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Regarding the service games, Keys bagged 11 aces and she was quite consistent in conceding no double faults. Madison Keys was quite efficient on serve to win 77% (27/35) of her 1st serve and 53% (9/17) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The American broke Kasatkina 4 times after converting 80% of her break points (4/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Keys has conceded 1 set in this event to conquer 58% of the points she played.
Keys has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 65% of her matches (232-124). 5-1 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Keys has an overall 138-74 record in the last years on hard.
Madison has a compiled 5-1 win-loss record in 2025, 5-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Adelaide
Liudmila Samsonova
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 26-23 | 12-15 | 6-5 | 0-0 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 34-24 | 25-15 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-17 | 26-10 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 39-22 | 15-9 | 6-9 | 8-3 | 10-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 26, Samsonova got to the semifinal after beating Marie Bouzkova 1-6 6-4 6-1, Belinda Bencic 7-6(3) 4-6 6-4 and Emma Navarro 6-4 6-4.
In the quarter, Samsonova had a good straight sets win against Navarro (6-4 6-4). During the match Samsonova scored 63 points vs Navarro’s 48. Samsonova was exceptionally aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Talking about serving, Samsonova blasted 2 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Liudmila Samsonova lost the serve 3 times and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Samsonova put 61% of her first serves in, winning 82% (27/33) of the points behind her 1st serve and 33% (7/21) on the 2nd serve. Samsonova broke Navarro 5 times after converting 71% of her break points (5/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Ludmilla has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points she played.
Samsonova has an aggregate 3-1 win-loss record in 2025, 3-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Adelaide
Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Keys | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 59 | 77 |
| Pts | 224-161 | 249-229 |
| Total Points | 385 | 478 |
| Winners | 86 | 98 |
| %Winners | 38% | 39% |
Both Keys and Samsonova played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Madison Keys lost 1 set, while Liudmila Samsonova lost 2 sets. Keys has played 1 set(s) less than Samsonova (7 vs 8). Therefore, Keys played 18 games less than Samsonova. The American scored 86 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Samsonova recorded 98 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Keys | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 20 | 14 |
| Avg per match | 6.7 | 4.7 |
| 1st in | 119/200 | 129/233 |
| %1st in | 60% | 55% |
| 1st pts | 86/119 | 98/129 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 76% |
| 2nd pts | 40/81 | 42/104 |
| %2nd pts | 49% | 40% |
Keys managed to score 20 aces (6.7 per match). Samsonova fired 14 aces (4.7 per match). Keys won 72% points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points. On the other side, Samsonova won 76% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 40% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Keys | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 14 |
| Converted | 15/27 | 14/32 |
| % Converted | 56% | 44% |
| Conceded | 20 | 29 |
| Saved | 14 | 18 |
| % Saved | 70% | 62% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 11 |
Madison broke her opponents 15 times with a 56% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 70% of the break points that she conceded. Ludmilla broke her opponents 14 times with a 44% conversion rate. Samsonova conceded her serve 11 times and she saved 62% of the break points that she conceded.
| Keys | |||||
| R1 Haddad Maia |
R2 Ostapenko |
1/4 Kasatkina |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-1 | 3-6 6-4 6-3 | 6-1 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 28 | 16 | 59 | |
| pts | 59-34 | 104-91 | 61-36 | 224-161 | |
| Total points | 93 | 195 | 97 | 385 | |
| Winners | 27 | 32 | 27 | 86 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 31% | 44% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 1 | 8 | 11 | 20 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 30/54 | 54/94 | 35/52 | 119/200 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 57% | 67% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 27/30 | 32/54 | 27/35 | 86/119 | |
| % 1st pts | 90% | 59% | 77% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/24 | 21/40 | 9/17 | 40/81 | |
| % 2nd pts | 42% | 53% | 53% | 49% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 7 | 4 | 15 | |
| Converted | 4/8 | 7/14 | 4/5 | 15/27 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | 80% | 56% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 17 | 2 | 20 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 11/17 | 2/2 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 65% | 100% | 88% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| Samsonova | |||||
| R1 Bouzkova |
R2 Bencic |
1/4 Navarro |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 1-6 6-4 6-1 | 7-63 4-6 6-4 | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 24 | 33 | 20 | 77 | |
| pts | 79-78 | 107-103 | 63-48 | 249-229 | |
| Total points | 157 | 210 | 111 | 478 | |
| Winners | 23 | 48 | 27 | 98 | |
| %Winners | 29% | 45% | 43% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 4 | 8 | 2 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 8 | 10 | 4 | 22 | |
| 1st in | 33/72 | 63/107 | 33/54 | 129/233 | |
| % 1st in | 46% | 59% | 61% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 23/33 | 48/63 | 27/33 | 98/129 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 76% | 82% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/39 | 18/44 | 7/21 | 42/104 | |
| % 2nd pts | 44% | 41% | 33% | 40% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 5 | 14 | |
| Converted | 5/15 | 4/10 | 5/7 | 14/32 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 40% | 71% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 14 | 5 | 29 | |
| Saved | 6/10 | 10/14 | 2/5 | 18 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 71% | 40% | 57% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWLWW
WWWL Tennis Scores in Adelaide
- Beatriz Haddad Maia/Laura SiegemundHaddad Maia/Laura Siegemund – Anna Danilina/Irina KhromachevaDanilina/Irina Khromacheva (6-2 5-7 10-7) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Hanyu Guo/Alexandra PanovaGuo/Alexandra Panova – Ellen Perez/Katerina SiniakovaPerez/Katerina Siniakova (4-6 6-3 11-9) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Orlando LuzLuz – Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues AlvesMeligeni Rodrigues Alves (4-6 6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Rafael MatosMatos – Jordi Samper-MontanaSamper-Montana (6-1 2-0 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova (4-1) – H2H and prediction
