Alex Michelsen and Lorenzo Sonego will fight against each other in the final of the Winston-Salem for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 5:00 pm on Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex Michelsen who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Alex Michelsen is the pick to win this match.
Alex Michelsen -> 1.74
Lorenzo Sonego -> 2.1
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Prediction and head to head Alex Michelsen vs. Lorenzo Sonego
This will be the 2nd time that Alex Michelsen and Lorenzo Sonego clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Sonego (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Sonego won 6-3 2-6 6-3 in the 1st round in the Cagliari Challenger back in May 2024.
Alex Michelsen
32 - 27win/loss
42
41
LWWWLWLLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 42-33 | 26-14 | 4-9 | 5-4 | 7-6 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 61-27 | 30-13 | 4-3 | 19-7 | 8-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 23-10 | 14-8 | 0-1 | 9-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 52 (career-high), Alex got to the final after defeating Marton Fucsovics 7-6(3) 6-4, Zizou Bergs 6-1 6-2, Christopher Eubanks 7-5 6-7(6) 7-6(5) and Pablo Carreno-Busta 7-6(5) 2-1 ret..
In the semifinal against Carreno-Busta, Alex had a free pass after Carreno-Busta retired on a 7-65 2-1 . scoreline.
Michelsen has a solid record in the last 3 years having won 65% of his matches (116-63). 20-10 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Michelsen has an overall64-31 win-loss record in the last 3 years on hard.
The American’s best result of the year was reaching the final in Newport.
Alex has an aggregate 32-26 win-loss record in 2024, 20-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Winston-Salem
Lorenzo Sonego
23 - 25win/loss
53
21
LWLWWLLWLL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27-33 | 10-14 | 10-11 | 4-5 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 30-31 | 10-12 | 9-7 | 9-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-29 | 7-9 | 8-11 | 10-5 | 5-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 30-24 | 9-11 | 9-4 | 6-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 13-15 | 0-5 | 7-7 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 58, Lorenzo reached the final after beating Unknown Player bye, Dominic Stricker 6-4 6-1, Juncheng Shang w/o, Pavel Kotov 6-3 7-5 and David Goffin 6-3 6-2.
In the semifinal, Sonego had a good straight sets win against Goffin (6-3 6-2). During the match Sonego scored 59 points vs Goffin’s 42. The Italian was quite aggressive to blast 24 winners.
About the serving games, Sonego struck 2 aces and he was extremely steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Lorenzo Sonego was extremely efficient on serve to win 75% (24/32) of his 1st serve and 68% (13/19) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Sonego broke Goffin 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sonego hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 57% of the points he played.
Lorenzo’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in the Turin Challenger and Salem.
The Italian has an overall 22-25 win-loss record in 2024, 9-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Winston-Salem
Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2019 and 2022. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Michelsen | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 92 | 55 |
| Pts | 312-274 | 200-149 |
| Total Points | 586 | 349 |
| Winners | 144 | 93 |
| %Winners | 46% | 47% |
Michelsen played 4 matches while Sonego competed in 3 matches. At the moment, Alex Michelsen lost 1 set while Lorenzo Sonego hasn’t dropped a set so far. Michelsen has played 4 sets more than Sonego (10 vs 6). Therefore, Michelsen played 37 games more than Sonego. The American scored 144 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, Lorenzo blasted 93 winners (47%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Michelsen | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 13 | 15 |
| Avg per match | 3.3 | 5 |
| 1st in | 199/282 | 121/180 |
| %1st in | 71% | 67% |
| 1st pts | 144/199 | 93/121 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 77% |
| 2nd pts | 43/83 | 32/59 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 54% |
Michelsen recorded 13 aces (3.3 per match). Sonego struck 15 aces (5 per match). Michelsen won 72% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Sonego won 77% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Michelsen | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 13 | 9 |
| Converted | 13/26 | 9/24 |
| % Converted | 50% | 38% |
| Conceded | 12 | 14 |
| Saved | 6 | 13 |
| % Saved | 50% | 93% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 1 |
Michelsen broke his opponents 13 times with a 50% conversion rate. Alex surrendered his serve 6 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. Lorenzo broke his opponents 9 times with a 38% conversion rate. Lorenzo conceded his serve once and he saved 93% of the break points that he conceded.
| Michelsen | ||||||
| R2 Fucsovics |
R3 Bergs |
1/4 Eubanks |
1/2 Carreno-Busta |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-63 6-4 | 6-1 6-2 | 7-5 6-76 7-65 | 7-65 2-1 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 15 | 38 | 16 | 92 | |
| pts | 80-75 | 62-43 | 115-105 | 55-51 | 312-274 | |
| Total points | 155 | 105 | 220 | 106 | 586 | |
| Winners | 33 | 28 | 61 | 22 | 144 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 45% | 53% | 40% | 46% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 52/72 | 37/53 | 79/111 | 31/46 | 199/282 | |
| % 1st in | 72% | 70% | 71% | 67% | 71% | |
| 1st pts | 33/52 | 28/37 | 61/79 | 22/31 | 144/199 | |
| % 1st pts | 63% | 76% | 77% | 71% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/20 | 8/16 | 16/32 | 6/15 | 43/83 | |
| % 2nd pts | 65% | 50% | 50% | 40% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 | |
| Converted | 2/5 | 4/9 | 4/5 | 3/7 | 13/26 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 44% | 80% | 43% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 12 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 3/3 | 3/6 | 0/2 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 100% | 50% | 0% | 38% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | |
| Sonego | ||||||
| R2 Stricker |
R3 Shang |
1/4 Kotov |
1/2 Goffin |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-1 | w/o | 6-3 7-5 | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | – | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | – | 21 | 17 | 55 | |
| pts | 63-46 | – | 78-61 | 59-42 | 200-149 | |
| Total points | 109 | – | 139 | 101 | 349 | |
| Winners | 32 | – | 37 | 24 | 93 | |
| %Winners | 51% | – | 47% | 41% | 47% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 7 | – | 6 | 2 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | – | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 41/67 | – | 48/62 | 32/51 | 121/180 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | – | 77% | 63% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 32/41 | – | 37/48 | 24/32 | 93/121 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | – | 77% | 75% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/26 | – | 7/14 | 13/19 | 32/59 | |
| % 2nd pts | 46% | – | 50% | 68% | 54% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | – | 3 | 3 | 9 | |
| Converted | 3/4 | – | 3/14 | 3/6 | 9/24 | |
| Converted % | 75% | – | 21% | 50% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 8 | – | 6 | 0 | 14 | |
| Saved | 8/8 | – | 5/6 | 0/0 | 13 | |
| Saved % | 100% | – | 83% | – | 46% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
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