Aryna Sabalenka and Danielle Rose Collins will clash against each other in the semifinal of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 8:30 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.42
Danielle Rose Collins -> 2.875
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Danielle Rose Collins
This will be the 6th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Danielle Rose Collins face off. The head to head is 5-0 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they squared off, Sabalenka won 4-6 6-4 6-3 in the 4th round in Madrid back in April 2024.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Danielle Rose Collins – Madrid 29-April-2024
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 54-12 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, the Belarussian reached the semifinal after beating Katie Volynets 4-6 6-3 6-2, Dayana Yastremska 6-4 6-2, Elina Svitolina 4-6 6-1 7-67 and Jelena Ostapenko 6-2 6-4.
In the quarter, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Ostapenko (6-2 6-4). During the match, Sabalenka scored 62 points vs Ostapenko’s 50. Sabalenka was exceptionally aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka recorded 2 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Aryna Sabalenka conceded no breaks for the entire match to put 76% of her first serves in, win 81% (30/37) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (6/12) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Ostapenko 3 times after converting 43% of her break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sabalenka has dropped 2 set in this tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 68% of her matches (342-160). 10-2 on clay in 2024. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has an aggregate72-37 match record in the last 9 years on clay.
Her best result of the year was winning the title at the Australian Open where she overcame Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2.
Sabalenka has a composed 24-6 win-loss record in 2024, 10-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Danielle Rose Collins
32 - 9win/loss
10
7
LLLLWWWLWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 42-16 | 20-10 | 19-5 | 0-0 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 22-18 | 19-15 | 0-2 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 21-12 | 17-6 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 40-15 | 23-10 | 11-3 | 5-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 10-6 | 6-5 | 4-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 15, Collins reached the semifinal after beating Anna Blinkova 6-4 ret., Caroline Garcia 6-3 6-3, Irina-Camelia Begu 6-0 6-3 and Victoria Azarenka 6-4 6-3.
In the quarter, Collins had a good straight sets win against Azarenka (6-4 6-3). During the match Collins scored 71 points vs Azarenka’s 61. Danielle was extremely aggressive to blast 26 winners.
Talking about serving, Collins made 6 aces and she committed only 8 double faults. Danielle Rose Collins lost the serve 3 times and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Collins put 57% of her first serves in, winning 68% (26/38) of the points behind her 1st serve and 41% (12/29) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Azarenka 5 times after converting 33% of her break points (5/15).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Danielle hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.
Her best result of the year was winning the title in Miami where she defeated Elena Rybakina in the final 7-5 6-3 and in Charleston where she overcame Daria Kasatkina in the final 6-2 6-1.
Danielle has an aggregate 32-8 win-loss record in 2024, 12-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Collins |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 93 | 62 |
| Pts | 339-288 | 232-178 |
| Total Points | 627 | 410 |
| Winners | 147 | 87 |
| %Winners | 43% | 38% |
Both Sabalenka and Collins played 4 matches. At the moment, Aryna Sabalenka surrendered 2 sets while Danielle Rose Collins hasn’t conceded a set so far. Sabalenka has played 2 sets more than Collins (10 vs 8). Therefore, Sabalenka played 31 games more than Collins. The Belarussian scored 147 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Danielle fired 87 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Collins |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 9 | 16 |
| Avg per match | 2.3 | 4 |
| 1st in | 223/315 | 114/211 |
| %1st in | 71% | 54% |
| 1st pts | 147/223 | 87/114 |
| %1st pts | 66% | 76% |
| 2nd pts | 47/92 | 42/97 |
| %2nd pts | 51% | 43% |
Sabalenka fired 9 aces (2.3 per match). Collins bagged 16 aces (4 per match). Sabalenka won 66% points on her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Collins won 76% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 43% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Collins |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 19 | 17 |
| Converted | 19/37 | 17/31 |
| % Converted | 51% | 55% |
| Conceded | 36 | 26 |
| Saved | 26 | 19 |
| % Saved | 72% | 73% |
| Times Broken | 10 | 7 |
The Belarussian broke her opponents 19 times with a 51% conversion rate. Aryna dropped her serve 10 times and she saved 72% of the break points that she conceded. Danielle broke her opponents 17 times with a 55% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 7 times and she saved 73% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||||
| R2 Volynets |
R3 Yastremska |
R4 Svitolina |
1/4 Ostapenko |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-3 6-2 | 6-4 6-2 | 4-6 6-1 7-67 | 6-2 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 27 | 18 | 30 | 18 | 93 | |
| pts | 103-89 | 68-52 | 106-97 | 62-50 | 339-288 | |
| Total points | 192 | 120 | 203 | 112 | 627 | |
| Winners | 43 | 25 | 49 | 30 | 147 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 37% | 46% | 48% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 68/98 | 33/50 | 85/118 | 37/49 | 223/315 | |
| % 1st in | 69% | 66% | 72% | 76% | 71% | |
| 1st pts | 43/68 | 25/33 | 49/85 | 30/37 | 147/223 | |
| % 1st pts | 63% | 76% | 58% | 81% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/30 | 13/17 | 16/33 | 6/12 | 47/92 | |
| % 2nd pts | 40% | 76% | 48% | 50% | 51% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 7 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 19 | |
| Converted | 7/13 | 3/10 | 6/7 | 3/7 | 19/37 | |
| Converted % | 54% | 30% | 86% | 43% | 51% | |
| Conceded | 16 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 36 | |
| Saved | 11/16 | 2/2 | 13/18 | 0/0 | 26 | |
| Saved % | 69% | 100% | 72% | – | 60% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 10 | |
| Collins | ||||||
| R2 Blinkova |
R3 Garcia |
R4 Begu |
1/4 Azarenka |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 ret. | 6-3 6-3 | 6-0 6-3 | 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 10 | 18 | 15 | 19 | 62 | |
| pts | 36-31 | 65-51 | 60-35 | 71-61 | 232-178 | |
| Total points | 67 | 116 | 95 | 132 | 410 | |
| Winners | 15 | 24 | 22 | 26 | 87 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 20 | |
| 1st in | 19/37 | 29/61 | 28/46 | 38/67 | 114/211 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 48% | 61% | 57% | 54% | |
| 1st pts | 15/19 | 24/29 | 22/28 | 26/38 | 87/114 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 83% | 79% | 68% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 6/18 | 12/32 | 12/18 | 12/29 | 42/97 | |
| % 2nd pts | 33% | 38% | 67% | 41% | 43% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 17 | |
| Converted | 3/3 | 5/6 | 4/7 | 5/15 | 17/31 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 83% | 57% | 33% | 55% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 26 | |
| Saved | 6/8 | 6/8 | 0/0 | 7/10 | 19 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 75% | – | 70% | 55% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWLWWWW
LLLLWWWLWW Tennis Scores in Rome
- Lloyd HarrisHarris – Christopher EubanksEubanks (6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Thanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis – Thomas FabbianoFabbiano (7-5 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Cori GauffGauff (9-1) – H2H and prediction
- Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (0-5) – H2H and prediction
