Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys will square off in the semifinal of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 4:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.078
Madison Keys -> 8.1
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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Madison Keys
This will be the 4th time that Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys clash against each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they competed against each other, Keys won 6-3 6-4 in the 3rd round in Cincinnati back in 2022.
Highlights Madison Keys vs Iga Swiatek – Cincinnati 18-August-2022
Iga Swiatek
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 59-8 | 29-5 | 26-2 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 68-11 | 42-8 | 19-2 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 67-9 | 42-6 | 18-1 | 5-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-15 | 18-10 | 12-2 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 16-5 | 6-4 | 7-1 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Iga got to the semifinal after defeating Xiyu Wang 6-1 6-4, Sorana Cirstea 6-1 6-1, Sara Sorribes Tormo 6-1 6-0 and Beatriz Haddad Maia 4-6 6-0 6-2.
In the quarter against Haddad Maia, Swiatek recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-0 6-2). During the match, Swiatek scored 96 points vs Haddad Maia’s 70. The Pole was exceptionally aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Regarding the service games, Swiatek wasn’t able to score even 1 ace during the encounter and she committed only 3 double faults. Iga Swiatek lost the serve 3 times and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Swiatek put 70% of her first serves in, winning 63% (31/49) of the points behind her 1st serve and 62% (13/21) on the 2nd serve. The Pole broke Haddad Maia 7 times after converting 39% of her break points (7/18).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Swiatek has lost 1 set in this event to win 61% of the points she played.
Swiatek has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 9 years having won 82% of her matches (315-71). 6-1 on clay in 2024. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this competition, Swiatek has a compiled117-17 record in the last 9 years on clay.
Her best result of the season was winning the title in Australia where she beat Angelique Kerber in the final 6-3 6-0 and in Doha where she overcame Elena Rybakina in the final 7-6(8) 6-2 and in Indian Wells where she overcame Maria Sakkari in the final 6-4 6-0.
Iga has a composed 30-4 win-loss record in 2024, 6-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Madison Keys
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 8-5 | 8-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 20, the American got to the semifinal after beating Irina-Camelia Begu 7-63 7-66, Liudmila Samsonova 6-2 6-3, Cori Gauff 7-64 4-6 6-4 and Ons Jabeur 0-6 7-5 6-1.
In the quarter against Jabeur, Keys recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (0-6 7-5 6-1). During the match Keys scored 74 points vs Jabeur’s 71. Madison was extremely aggressive to blast 33 winners.
Talking about serving, Keys struck 3 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve 4 times and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 65% of her first serves in, winning 62% (33/53) of the points behind her 1st serve and 59% (17/29) on the 2nd serve. Madison broke Jabeur 4 times after converting 57% of her break points (4/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Madison has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points she played.
The American has an aggregate 7-3 win-loss record in 2024, 4-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2016. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Swiatek | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 10 |
| Tot Games | 68 | 101 |
| Pts | 271-170 | 344-319 |
| Total Points | 441 | 663 |
| Winners | 92 | 152 |
| %Winners | 34% | 44% |
Both Swiatek and Keys played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Iga Swiatek conceded 1 set, while Madison Keys conceded 2 sets. Swiatek has played 1 set(s) less than Keys (9 vs 10). Therefore, Swiatek played 33 games less than Keys. Iga scored 92 winners (34% of the total points). On the other side, Keys blasted 152 winners (44%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Swiatek | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 3 | 14 |
| Avg per match | 0.8 | 3.5 |
| 1st in | 135/205 | 234/354 |
| %1st in | 66% | 66% |
| 1st pts | 92/135 | 152/234 |
| %1st pts | 68% | 65% |
| 2nd pts | 42/70 | 57/120 |
| %2nd pts | 60% | 48% |
Swiatek fired 3 aces (0.8 per match). Keys recorded 14 aces (3.5 per match). Swiatek won 68% points on her first serve. She quite strong on her second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 65% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 48% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Swiatek | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 24 | 18 |
| Converted | 24/48 | 18/34 |
| % Converted | 50% | 53% |
| Conceded | 14 | 39 |
| Saved | 8 | 25 |
| % Saved | 57% | 64% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 14 |
Swiatek broke her opponents 24 times with a 50% conversion rate. Swiatek dropped her serve 6 times and she saved 57% of the break points that she conceded. Madison broke her opponents 18 times with a 53% conversion rate. Keys conceded her serve 14 times and she saved 64% of the break points that she conceded.
| Swiatek | ||||||
| R2 Wang |
R3 Cirstea |
R4 Sorribes Tormo |
1/4 Haddad Maia |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-4 | 6-1 6-1 | 6-1 6-0 | 4-6 6-0 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 14 | 13 | 24 | 68 | |
| pts | 59-42 | 61-37 | 55-21 | 96-70 | 271-170 | |
| Total points | 101 | 98 | 76 | 166 | 441 | |
| Winners | 24 | 19 | 18 | 31 | 92 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 31% | 33% | 32% | 34% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 33/52 | 29/45 | 24/38 | 49/70 | 135/205 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 64% | 63% | 70% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 24/33 | 19/29 | 18/24 | 31/49 | 92/135 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 66% | 75% | 63% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/19 | 11/16 | 9/14 | 13/21 | 42/70 | |
| % 2nd pts | 47% | 69% | 64% | 62% | 60% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 24 | |
| Converted | 5/7 | 6/14 | 6/9 | 7/18 | 24/48 | |
| Converted % | 71% | 43% | 67% | 39% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 1/2 | 0/1 | 4/7 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 50% | 0% | 57% | 46% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | |
| Keys | ||||||
| R2 Begu |
R3 Samsonova |
R4 Gauff |
1/4 Jabeur |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-63 7-66 | 6-2 6-3 | 7-64 4-6 6-4 | 0-6 7-5 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 17 | 33 | 25 | 101 | |
| pts | 93-89 | 66-44 | 111-115 | 74-71 | 344-319 | |
| Total points | 182 | 110 | 226 | 145 | 663 | |
| Winners | 45 | 29 | 45 | 33 | 152 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 44% | 41% | 45% | 44% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 3 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 67/98 | 37/53 | 77/121 | 53/82 | 234/354 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 70% | 64% | 65% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 45/67 | 29/37 | 45/77 | 33/53 | 152/234 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 78% | 58% | 62% | 65% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/31 | 9/16 | 18/44 | 17/29 | 57/120 | |
| % 2nd pts | 42% | 56% | 41% | 59% | 48% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 4/6 | 7/14 | 4/7 | 18/34 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 67% | 50% | 57% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 13 | 4 | 15 | 7 | 39 | |
| Saved | 10/13 | 4/4 | 8/15 | 3/7 | 25 | |
| Saved % | 77% | 100% | 53% | 43% | 68% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 14 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWLWWWW
LLWWLWWLLW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Alexei PopyrinPopyrin – Zhizhen ZhangZhang (6-4 3-6 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- James WardWard – Zihao XiaXia (6-2 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Madison KeysKeys (2-1) – H2H and prediction
