H2H, prediction of Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys in Madrid with odds, preview, pick | 2nd May 2024

PREVIEW. Madrid. Swiatek and Keys will face off in the semifinal of the Mutua Madrid Open. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their upcoming match on Thursday the 2nd of May

Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Madison Keys

Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys will square off in the semifinal of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 4:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.078
Madison Keys -> 8.1

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Soccer Tonic Predictions

Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Madison Keys

This will be the 4th time that Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys clash against each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.

The last time that they competed against each other, Keys won 6-3 6-4 in the 3rd round in Cincinnati back in 2022.

Highlights Madison Keys vs Iga Swiatek – Cincinnati 18-August-2022

Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek
Iga Swiatek

30 - 4win/loss

Hard
22-3
I Hard
2-0
Clay
6-1
Rank
2
High
1
LWWWWLWWWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 59-8 29-5 26-2 2-0 2-1 0-0
2023 68-11 42-8 19-2 0-0 7-1 0-0
2022 67-9 42-6 18-1 5-1 2-1 0-0
2021 36-15 18-10 12-2 2-1 4-2 0-0
2020 16-5 6-4 7-1 3-0 0-0 0-0

Currently world no. 1 Iga got to the semifinal after defeating Xiyu Wang 6-1 6-4, Sorana Cirstea 6-1 6-1, Sara Sorribes Tormo 6-1 6-0 and Beatriz Haddad Maia 4-6 6-0 6-2.

In the quarter against Haddad Maia, Swiatek recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-0 6-2). During the match, Swiatek scored 96 points vs Haddad Maia’s 70. The Pole was exceptionally aggressive to blast 31 winners.

Regarding the service games, Swiatek wasn’t able to score even 1 ace during the encounter and she committed only 3 double faults. Iga Swiatek lost the serve 3 times and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Swiatek put 70% of her first serves in, winning 63% (31/49) of the points behind her 1st serve and 62% (13/21) on the 2nd serve. The Pole broke Haddad Maia 7 times after converting 39% of her break points (7/18).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Swiatek has lost 1 set in this event to win 61% of the points she played.

Swiatek has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 9 years having won 82% of her matches (315-71). 6-1 on clay in 2024. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this competition, Swiatek has a compiled117-17 record in the last 9 years on clay.

Her best result of the season was winning the title in Australia where she beat Angelique Kerber in the final 6-3 6-0 and in Doha where she overcame Elena Rybakina in the final 7-6(8) 6-2 and in Indian Wells where she overcame Maria Sakkari in the final 6-4 6-0.

Iga has a composed 30-4 win-loss record in 2024, 6-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Swiatek
Madrid
Swiatek's Record

Madison Keys

Madison Keys
Madison Keys

7 - 3win/loss

Hard
3-2
I Hard
0-0
Clay
4-1
Rank
21
High
7
LLWWLWWLLW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 24-12 7-6 13-4 0-0 4-2 0-0
2023 33-15 19-9 5-3 0-2 9-1 0-0
2022 30-20 25-12 4-4 0-3 1-1 0-0
2021 11-15 3-9 3-4 0-0 5-2 0-0
2020 8-5 8-4 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 20, the American got to the semifinal after beating Irina-Camelia Begu 7-63 7-66, Liudmila Samsonova 6-2 6-3, Cori Gauff 7-64 4-6 6-4 and Ons Jabeur 0-6 7-5 6-1.

In the quarter against Jabeur, Keys recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (0-6 7-5 6-1). During the match Keys scored 74 points vs Jabeur’s 71. Madison was extremely aggressive to blast 33 winners.

Talking about serving, Keys struck 3 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve 4 times and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 65% of her first serves in, winning 62% (33/53) of the points behind her 1st serve and 59% (17/29) on the 2nd serve. Madison broke Jabeur 4 times after converting 57% of her break points (4/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Madison has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points she played.

The American has an aggregate 7-3 win-loss record in 2024, 4-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2016. See her history.

Keys
Madrid
Keys's Record
Bonus
Soccer Tonic Predictions

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

I.Swiatek
M.Keys
6h:10
6h:10
Time on court​
7h:29
7h:29
!
2h:29
2h:29
Last match​
1h:33
1h:33
4
4
Match played
4
4
68
68
Games Played​
101
101
9
9
Set played​​
10
10
271
271
Total points​
344
344
67.8
67.8
Avg point​
86
86
92
92
Winners
152
152
23
23
Avg Winners​
38
38
34%
34%
Ratio winners
44%
44%
-- Serve --
3
3
Aces
14
14
0.8
0.8
Avg Aces
3.5
3.5
7
7
Double Faults
7
7
1.8
1.8
Avg Double Faults
1.8
1.8
92/135
92/135
1st won total​
152/234
152/234
68%
68%
1st won %
65%
65%
42/70
42/70
2nd won total​
57/120
57/120
60%
60%
2nd won %
48%
48%
-- Break Points --
24/48
24/48
BP won
18/34
18/34
6/12
6/12
Avg BP won
4.5/8.5
4.5/8.5
50%
50%
Won
!
53%
53%
14
14
Conceded
39
39
3.5
3.5
Avg Conceded
9.8
9.8
6
6
Broken
14
14
1.5
1.5
Avg Broken
3.5
3.5
8
8
Saved
25
25

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Swiatek Keys
Match played 4 4
Tot Set 9 10
Tot Games 68 101
Pts 271-170 344-319
Total Points 441 663
Winners 92 152
%Winners 34% 44%

Both Swiatek and Keys played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Iga Swiatek conceded 1 set, while Madison Keys conceded 2 sets. Swiatek has played 1 set(s) less than Keys (9 vs 10). Therefore, Swiatek played 33 games less than Keys. Iga scored 92 winners (34% of the total points). On the other side, Keys blasted 152 winners (44%).

Serve Performance

Serve Swiatek Keys
Aces 3 14
Avg per match 0.8 3.5
1st in 135/205 234/354
%1st in 66% 66%
1st pts 92/135 152/234
%1st pts 68% 65%
2nd pts 42/70 57/120
%2nd pts 60% 48%

Swiatek fired 3 aces (0.8 per match). Keys recorded 14 aces (3.5 per match). Swiatek won 68% points on her first serve. She quite strong on her second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 65% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 48% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Swiatek Keys
Won 24 18
Converted 24/48 18/34
% Converted 50% 53%
Conceded 14 39
Saved 8 25
% Saved 57% 64%
Times Broken 6 14

Swiatek broke her opponents 24 times with a 50% conversion rate. Swiatek dropped her serve 6 times and she saved 57% of the break points that she conceded. Madison broke her opponents 18 times with a 53% conversion rate. Keys conceded her serve 14 times and she saved 64% of the break points that she conceded.

Swiatek
R2
Wang
R3
Cirstea
R4
Sorribes Tormo
1/4
Haddad Maia
Total
Score 6-1 6-4 6-1 6-1 6-1 6-0 4-6 6-0 6-2
Tot Set 2 2 2 3 9
Tot Games 17 14 13 24 68
pts 59-42 61-37 55-21 96-70 271-170
Total points 101 98 76 166 441
Winners 24 19 18 31 92
%Winners 41% 31% 33% 32% 34%
SERVE
Aces 3 0 0 0 3
Double Faults 3 0 1 3 7
1st in 33/52 29/45 24/38 49/70 135/205
% 1st in 63% 64% 63% 70% 66%
1st pts 24/33 19/29 18/24 31/49 92/135
% 1st pts 73% 66% 75% 63% 68%
2nd pts 9/19 11/16 9/14 13/21 42/70
% 2nd pts 47% 69% 64% 62% 60%
Breaks
Won 5 6 6 7 24
Converted 5/7 6/14 6/9 7/18 24/48
Converted % 71% 43% 67% 39% 50%
Conceded 4 2 1 7 14
Saved 3/4 1/2 0/1 4/7 8
Saved % 75% 50% 0% 57% 46%
Times Broken 1 1 1 3 6
Keys
R2
Begu
R3
Samsonova
R4
Gauff
1/4
Jabeur
Total
Score 7-63 7-66 6-2 6-3 7-64 4-6 6-4 0-6 7-5 6-1
Tot Set 2 2 3 3 10
Tot Games 26 17 33 25 101
pts 93-89 66-44 111-115 74-71 344-319
Total points 182 110 226 145 663
Winners 45 29 45 33 152
%Winners 48% 44% 41% 45% 44%
SERVE
Aces 3 7 1 3 14
Double Faults 2 0 2 3 7
1st in 67/98 37/53 77/121 53/82 234/354
% 1st in 68% 70% 64% 65% 66%
1st pts 45/67 29/37 45/77 33/53 152/234
% 1st pts 67% 78% 58% 62% 65%
2nd pts 13/31 9/16 18/44 17/29 57/120
% 2nd pts 42% 56% 41% 59% 48%
Breaks
Won 3 4 7 4 18
Converted 3/7 4/6 7/14 4/7 18/34
Converted % 43% 67% 50% 57% 53%
Conceded 13 4 15 7 39
Saved 10/13 4/4 8/15 3/7 25
Saved % 77% 100% 53% 43% 68%
Times Broken 3 0 7 4 14

Head 2 Head

Win Loss
Swiatek
LWWWWLWWWW
Keys
LLWWLWWLLW
2024 2023 2022
59 - 8
24 - 12
29-5
Hard
7-6
2-0
I Hard
0-0
26-2
Clay
13-4
2-1
Grass
4-2

Tennis Scores in Madrid

See Updated Draw
Soccer Tonic Predictions
Bonus

Upcoming matches in the draw