Matteo Arnaldi and Denis Shapovalov will square off in the 3^rd round of the Miami Open for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 4:00 pm on COURT 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Denis Shapovalov who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Denis Shapovalov is the pick to win this match.
Denis Shapovalov -> 1.8
Matteo Arnaldi -> 2.02

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Prediction and head to head Matteo Arnaldi vs. Denis Shapovalov

This will be the 2^nd time that Matteo Arnaldi and Denis Shapovalov fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Shapovalov (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Shapovalov won 6-2 3-6 6-3 6-3 in the 2^nd round in at the French Open back in 2023.

Highlights Denis Shapovalov vs Matteo Arnaldi – French Open 31-May-2023

Matteo Arnaldi

Matteo Arnaldi

10 - 7win/loss

Hard

10-7

I Hard

0-0

Rank
37

High
30

LLLWLWLWWL

See allSTATS

Year	Total	Hard	Clay	I.hard	Grass	Carpet
2024	29-26	17-13	10-9	1-2	1-2	0-0
2023	51-26	21-15	23-7	4-3	3-1	0-0
2022	50-35	9-3	37-20	4-11	0-1	0-0
2021	56-24	2-1	51-18	3-5	0-0	0-0
2020	17-9	16-4	0-1	1-3	0-0	0-1

See all years

Ranked no. 38 (career-high), Matteo got to the 3^rd round after beating Arthur Fils 6-3 6-4 and Alexander Bublik 6-4 6-1.

In the 2^nd round, Arnaldi had a good straight sets win against Bublik (6-4 6-1). During the match, Arnaldi scored 68 points vs Bublik’s 53. The Italian was pretty aggressive to blast 27 winners.

Regarding the service games, Arnaldi scored 6 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Matteo Arnaldi lost the serve once and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Arnaldi put 58% of his first serves in, winning 75% (27/36) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (13/26) on the 2nd serve. Arnaldi broke Bublik 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian hasn’t lost yet a set in this event to conquer 57% of the points he played.

Arnaldi has a solid record in the last 7 years having won 63% of his matches (196-115). 9-7 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Arnaldi has a composed66-35 match record in the last 7 years on hard.

Arnaldi has a compiled 9-7 win-loss record in 2024, 9-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Miami

Miami

Arnaldi's Record

Denis Shapovalov

Denis Shapovalov

6 - 8win/loss

Hard

3-5

I Hard

3-3

Rank
56

High
10

LWWWWWWWLW

See allSTATS

Year	Total	Hard	Clay	I.hard	Grass	Carpet
2024	33-25	9-10	5-6	16-6	3-3	0-0
2023	13-13	6-6	3-3	0-1	4-3	0-0
2022	34-26	22-12	4-4	7-6	1-4	0-0
2021	30-23	11-11	7-6	4-3	8-3	0-0
2020	17-15	8-6	5-2	4-7	0-0	0-0

See all years

Ranked no. 126, Shapovalov reached the 3^rd round after beating Luciano Darderi 6-3 6-7³ 6-4 and Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-2 6-4.

In the 2^nd round, Denis had a good straight sets win against Tsitsipas (6-2 6-4). During the match Shapovalov scored 82 points vs Tsitsipas’s 64. Shapovalov was pretty aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Talking about serving, Shapovalov made 3 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Denis Shapovalov was extremely efficient on serve to win 89% (25/28) of his 1st serve and 63% (12/19) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Shapovalov broke Tsitsipas 3 times after converting 17% of his break points (3/18).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Denis has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

The Canadian has a composed 6-7 win-loss record in 2024, 3-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Miami

Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2019. See his history.

Miami

Shapovalov's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Both Arnaldi and Shapovalov played 2 matches. At the moment, Denis Shapovalov lost 1 set while Matteo Arnaldi hasn’t dropped a set so far. Arnaldi has played 1 set(s) less than Shapovalov (4 vs 5). Therefore, Arnaldi played 14 games less than Shapovalov. Arnaldi scored 54 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Denis scored 72 winners (36%).

Serve Performance

Arnaldi fired 11 aces (5.5 per match). Shapovalov scored 19 aces (9.5 per match). Arnaldi won 83% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Shapovalov won 81% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

The Italian broke his opponents 6 times with a 33% conversion rate. Matteo surrendered his serve once and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded. Denis broke his opponents 7 times with a 23% conversion rate. Shapovalov conceded his serve once and he saved 0% of the break points that he conceded.

Head 2 Head

• 0Slam
• 0Main
• 4Chall
• 2Minor

• 0Slam
• 3Main
• 2Chall
• 4Minor

Matteo
Arnaldi

1:1

Denis
Shapovalov

Rank

37

High

30

1Hard0

0Clay1

Rank

56

High

10

Win Loss

Arnaldi

LLLWLWLWWL

Shapovalov

LWWWWWWWLW

2024 2023 2022

28 - 26

30 - 24

17-13

Hard

9-10

0-2

I Hard

13-5

10-9

Clay

5-6

1-2

Grass

3-3

Tennis Scores in Miami

• Alexander ZverevZverev – Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Gael MonfilsMonfils – Jordan ThompsonThompson (6-7³ 6-1 6-2) – See score progression
• Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Juncheng ShangShang (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Andrea VavassoriVavassori (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Andy MurrayMurray – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (7-6⁰ 6-3) – See score progression
• Sebastian KordaKorda – Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut (6-7² 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Martin DammDamm – Tommy PaulPaul (4-6 2-1 ret.) – See score progression
• Casper RuudRuud – Luca Van AsscheVan Assche (7-6⁵ 1-6 6-1) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
• Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Alexander BublikBublik (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Marton FucsovicsFucsovics (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Christopher O ConnellO Connell – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (7-5 7-6⁵) – See score progression
• Cameron NorrieNorrie – Flavio CobolliCobolli (7-5 6-7⁴ 6-2) – See score progression
• Thiago Seyboth WildSeyboth Wild – Taylor FritzFritz (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Dominik KoepferKoepfer – Sebastian BaezBaez (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Christopher EubanksEubanks – Daniel EvansEvans (7-6³ 3-6 7-6⁷) – See score progression
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Laslo DjereDjere (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Alex MichelsenMichelsen (7-6⁵ 6-7⁷ 6-4) – See score progression
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Sebastian OfnerOfner (7-6² 6-7² 6-1) – See score progression
• Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Alexander ShevchenkoShevchenko (6-4 6-7² 6-3) – See score progression
• Nicolas JarryJarry – Jack DraperDraper (7-6⁵ 4-6 7-6²) – See score progression
• Ugo HumbertHumbert – Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Tomas MachacMachac – Andrey RublevRublev (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
• Gael MonfilsMonfils – Jordan ThompsonThompson (6-7(3) 6-1 6-2) – See score progression
• Sebastian KordaKorda – Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut (6-7(2) 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Alexander ShevchenkoShevchenko (6-4 6-7(2) 6-3) – See score progression
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Christopher EubanksEubanks – Daniel EvansEvans (7-6(3) 3-6 7-6(7)) – See score progression
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Sebastian OfnerOfner (7-6(2) 6-7(2) 6-1) – See score progression
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Laslo DjereDjere (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Casper RuudRuud – Luca Van AsscheVan Assche (7-6(5) 1-6 6-1) – See score progression
• Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Juncheng ShangShang (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Cameron NorrieNorrie – Flavio CobolliCobolli (7-5 6-7(4) 6-2) – See score progression
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Marton FucsovicsFucsovics (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Andy MurrayMurray – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (7-6(0) 6-3) – See score progression
• Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Alexander BublikBublik (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
• Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Andrea VavassoriVavassori (6-3 6-4) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Yannick HanfmannHanfmann – Adrian MannarinoMannarino (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Christopher EubanksEubanks (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Nicolas JarryJarry – Thiago Seyboth WildSeyboth Wild (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Cameron NorrieNorrie – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Casper RuudRuud – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Jannik SinnerSinner (0-3) – H2H and prediction
• Ugo HumbertHumbert – Dominik KoepferKoepfer (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Soon-Woo KwonKwon (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Sebastian KordaKorda – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (1-3) – H2H and prediction
• Fabian MarozsanMarozsan – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Tomas MachacMachac – Andy MurrayMurray (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Roman SafiullinSafiullin (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Gael MonfilsMonfils (1-0) – H2H and prediction

Arnaldi

More Stats

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Shapovalov