Iga Swiatek and Maria Sakkari will fight against each other in the final of the BNP Paribas Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 11:00 am on STADIUM 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.2
Maria Sakkari -> 4.8
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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Maria Sakkari
This will be the 6th time that Iga Swiatek and Maria Sakkari square off. The head to head is 3-2 for Sakkari (see full H2H stats), but Swiatek has a winning record of 2-1 on hard.
The last time that they played, Swiatek won 6-4 6-1 in the final in Indian Wells back in 2022.
Iga Swiatek
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 64-9 | 29-5 | 26-2 | 7-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 68-11 | 42-8 | 19-2 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 67-9 | 42-6 | 18-1 | 5-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-15 | 18-10 | 12-2 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 16-5 | 6-4 | 7-1 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 the Pole got to the final after defeating Danielle Rose Collins 6-3 6-0, Linda Noskova 6-4 6-0, Yulia Putintseva 6-1 6-2, Caroline Wozniacki 6-4 1-0 ret. and Marta Kostyuk 6-2 6-1.
In the semifinal, The Pole had a good straight sets win against Kostyuk (6-2 6-1). During the match, Swiatek scored 57 points vs Kostyuk’s 34. Swiatek was extremely aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Talking about the service games, Swiatek couldn’t to score even 1 ace throughout the encounter and she was pretty solid in conceding no double faults. Iga Swiatek conceded no breaks for the entire match to put 74% of her first serves in, win 83% (24/29) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (5/10) on the 2nd serve. Swiatek broke Kostyuk 5 times after converting 83% of her break points (5/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Swiatek hasn’t dropped yet a set in this tournament to conquer 62% of the points she played.
Swiatek has a fantastic match record in the last 9 years having won 82% of her matches (304-69). 19-2 on hard in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Swiatek has an aggregate152-39 match record in the last 9 years on hard.
Her best result of the year was conquering the title in Australia where she beat Angelique Kerber in the final 6-3 6-0 and in Doha where she defeated Elena Rybakina in the final 7-6(8) 6-2.
Swiatek has an overall 19-2 win-loss record in 2024, 19-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Maria Sakkari
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25-16 | 12-7 | 11-6 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 38-25 | 26-17 | 5-4 | 3-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-23 | 21-12 | 8-5 | 4-2 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-20 | 23-13 | 9-4 | 5-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 20-11 | 12-7 | 2-2 | 6-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 9, the Greek got to the final after beating Diana Shnaider 5-7 6-4 6-0, Caroline Garcia 6-3 6-4, Diane Parry 6-2 3-6 6-3, Emma Navarro 5-7 6-2 6-4 and Cori Gauff 6-4 6-75 6-2.
In the semifinal, The Greek defeated Gauff (6-4 6-75 6-2). During the match Sakkari scored 116 points vs Gauff’s 104. The Greek was extremely aggressive to blast 51 winners.
Talking about serving, Sakkari recorded 2 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Maria Sakkari lost the serve 3 times and she saved 11 break points. Furthermore, Sakkari put 63% of her first serves in, winning 67% (51/76) of the points behind her 1st serve and 48% (21/44) on the 2nd serve. The Greek broke Gauff 6 times after converting 50% of her break points (6/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Maria has conceded 4 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
The Greek’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in Indian Wells.
Sakkari has a compiled 10-4 win-loss record in 2024, 10-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, her best result was reaching the final in 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Swiatek | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 14 |
| Tot Games | 72 | 134 |
| Pts | 291-188 | 489-429 |
| Total Points | 479 | 918 |
| Winners | 109 | 201 |
| %Winners | 37% | 41% |
Both Swiatek and Sakkari played 5 matches. At the moment, Maria Sakkari dropped 4 sets while Iga Swiatek hasn’t dropped a set so far. Swiatek has played 3 set(s) less than Sakkari (11 vs 14). Therefore, Swiatek played 62 games less than Sakkari. Swiatek scored 109 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, The Greek scored 201 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Swiatek | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 5 | 15 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 3 |
| 1st in | 153/226 | 281/480 |
| %1st in | 68% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 109/153 | 201/281 |
| %1st pts | 71% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 42/73 | 96/199 |
| %2nd pts | 58% | 48% |
Swiatek blasted 5 aces (1 per match). Sakkari blasted 15 aces (3 per match). Swiatek won 71% points behind her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Sakkari won 72% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 48% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Swiatek | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 23 | 25 |
| Converted | 23/45 | 25/53 |
| % Converted | 51% | 47% |
| Conceded | 16 | 46 |
| Saved | 12 | 33 |
| % Saved | 75% | 72% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 13 |
The Pole broke her opponents 23 times with a 51% conversion rate. The Pole lost her serve 4 times and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded. The Greek broke her opponents 25 times with a 47% conversion rate. Maria conceded her serve 13 times and she saved 72% of the break points that she conceded.
| Swiatek | |||||||
| R2 Collins |
R3 Noskova |
R4 Putintseva |
1/4 Wozniacki |
1/2 Kostyuk |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-0 | 6-4 6-0 | 6-1 6-2 | 6-4 1-0 ret. | 6-2 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 15 | 72 | |
| pts | 65-42 | 60-39 | 63-37 | 46-36 | 57-34 | 291-188 | |
| Total points | 107 | 99 | 100 | 82 | 91 | 479 | |
| Winners | 32 | 21 | 22 | 10 | 24 | 109 | |
| %Winners | 49% | 35% | 35% | 22% | 42% | 37% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 45/63 | 33/54 | 30/43 | 16/27 | 29/39 | 153/226 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 61% | 70% | 59% | 74% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 32/45 | 21/33 | 22/30 | 10/16 | 24/29 | 109/153 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 64% | 73% | 63% | 83% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/18 | 13/21 | 7/13 | 8/11 | 5/10 | 42/73 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 62% | 54% | 73% | 50% | 58% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 23 | |
| Converted | 4/6 | 5/9 | 6/14 | 3/10 | 5/6 | 23/45 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 56% | 43% | 30% | 83% | 51% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | |
| Saved | 4/4 | 4/5 | 4/6 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 80% | 67% | 0% | – | 49% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Sakkari | ||||||||
| R2 Shnaider |
R3 Garcia |
R4 Parry |
R4 Parry |
1/4 Navarro |
1/2 Gauff |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 5-7 6-4 6-0 | 6-3 6-4 | 6-2 3-6 6-3 | 5-7 6-2 6-4 | 6-4 6-75 6-2 | |||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 19 | 26 | 0 | 30 | 31 | 134 | |
| pts | 98-85 | 62-48 | 86-77 | 77-86 | 127-115 | 116-104 | 566-515 | |
| Total points | 183 | 110 | 163 | 163 | 242 | 220 | 1081 | |
| Winners | 44 | 25 | 28 | 26 | 53 | 51 | 227 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 40% | 33% | 34% | 42% | 44% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 25 | |
| 1st in | 58/89 | 33/64 | 39/82 | 36/81 | 75/125 | 76/120 | 317/561 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 52% | 48% | 44% | 60% | 63% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 44/58 | 25/33 | 28/39 | 26/36 | 53/75 | 51/76 | 227/317 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 76% | 72% | 72% | 71% | 67% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/31 | 15/31 | 26/43 | 23/45 | 22/50 | 21/44 | 119/244 | |
| % 2nd pts | 39% | 48% | 60% | 51% | 44% | 48% | 49% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 27 | |
| Converted | 6/13 | 4/4 | 4/7 | 2/8 | 5/17 | 6/12 | 27/61 | |
| Converted % | 46% | 100% | 57% | 25% | 29% | 50% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 53 | |
| Saved | 6/9 | 0/2 | 6/8 | 3/7 | 10/13 | 11/14 | 36 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 0% | 75% | 43% | 77% | 79% | 68% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWLWLWWW
LLWWLWWLLL Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Ugo HumbertHumbert – Adrian Menendez-MaceirasMenendez-Maceiras (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Maria SakkariSakkari (2-3) – H2H and prediction
