Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi will face off in the 2nd round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 6:00 pm on STADIUM 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.068
Matteo Arnaldi -> 8.6
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Matteo Arnaldi
This will be the 2nd time that Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Alcaraz won 6-3 6-3 6-4 in the 4th round in at the U.S. Open back in 2023.
Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi – U.S. Open 04-September-2023
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 38-5 | 10-4 | 22-1 | 5-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Alcaraz will start his run in Indian Wells after he played his last match in Rio De Janiero where he lost 1-1 ret. to Moura Monteiro in the 1st round on the 20th of February.
Carlos has an overall 6-3 win-loss record in 2024, 4-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Alcaraz’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Buenos Aires.
Talking about his overall career, The Spaniard has an overall 239-66 record. He has a positive 79-21 record on hard.
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, he won this tournament once in 2023. See his history.
Matteo Arnaldi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15-14 | 6-6 | 7-6 | 2-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 29-26 | 17-13 | 10-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-26 | 21-15 | 23-7 | 4-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-35 | 9-3 | 37-20 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-24 | 2-1 | 51-18 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 40, Arnaldi reached the 2nd round after beating Luca Van Assche 7-66 7-63.
In the 1st round, Arnaldi had a good straight sets win against Van Assche (7-66 7-63). During the match Arnaldi scored 82 points vs Van Assche’s 79. Matteo was exceptionally aggressive to blast 38 winners.
Talking about serving, Arnaldi managed to score 11 aces and he was extremely consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Matteo Arnaldi lost the serve twice and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Arnaldi put 60% of his first serves in, winning 79% (38/48) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (15/32) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Van Assche twice after converting 22% of his break points (2/9).
Matteo has an overall 7-6 win-loss record in 2024, 7-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, his best result was reaching the qualifications in 2023. See his history.
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
LLWLWWLLWW Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Jakub MensikMensik – Seong Chan HongChan Hong (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Tomas MachacMachac – Stan WawrinkaWawrinka (7-63 4-6 6-2) – See score progression
- Thiago Seyboth WildSeyboth Wild – Jeff WolfWolf (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Lucas PouillePouille – Daniel AltmaierAltmaier (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Arthur FilsFils – Nuno BorgesBorges (7-65 6-2) – See score progression
- Juncheng ShangShang – Jordan ThompsonThompson (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Alex MichelsenMichelsen – Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Borna CoricCoric – Sebastian OfnerOfner (6-2 3-6 6-0) – See score progression
- Aleksandar VukicVukic – Shintaro MochizukiMochizuki (7-64 7-66) – See score progression
- Dusan LajovicLajovic – Emil RuusuvuoriRuusuvuori (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
- Constant LestienneLestienne – Denis KudlaKudla (3-6 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Lorenzo SonegoSonego – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (7-61 6-4) – See score progression
- Roman SafiullinSafiullin – Daniel EvansEvans (6-1 5-7 6-2) – See score progression
- Gael MonfilsMonfils – Max PurcellPurcell (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Christopher O ConnellO Connell – Jack DraperDraper (1-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Thanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis – Marcos GironGiron (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
- Yannick HanfmannHanfmann – Pedro CachinCachin (6-77 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Andy MurrayMurray – David GoffinGoffin (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Taro DanielDaniel – Daniel Elahi GalanElahi Galan (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Fabian MarozsanMarozsan – Jurij RodionovRodionov (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Luca Van AsscheVan Assche (7-66 7-63) – See score progression
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Christopher EubanksEubanks (6-3 7-63) – See score progression
- Alexander ShevchenkoShevchenko – Dominik KoepferKoepfer (6-3 1-6 7-63) – See score progression
- Aleksandar VukicVukic – Shintaro MochizukiMochizuki (7-6(4) 7-6(6)) – See score progression
- Alex MichelsenMichelsen – Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Arthur FilsFils – Nuno BorgesBorges (7-6(5) 6-2) – See score progression
- Lorenzo SonegoSonego – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (7-6(1) 6-4) – See score progression
- Gael MonfilsMonfils – Max PurcellPurcell (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Roman SafiullinSafiullin – Daniel EvansEvans (6-1 5-7 6-2) – See score progression
- Tomas MachacMachac – Stan WawrinkaWawrinka (7-6(3) 4-6 6-2) – See score progression
- Dusan LajovicLajovic – Emil RuusuvuoriRuusuvuori (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
- Lucas PouillePouille – Daniel AltmaierAltmaier (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Jakub MensikMensik – Seong Chan HongChan Hong (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Borna CoricCoric – Sebastian OfnerOfner (6-2 3-6 6-0) – See score progression
- Juncheng ShangShang – Jordan ThompsonThompson (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Thiago Seyboth WildSeyboth Wild – Jeff WolfWolf (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Constant LestienneLestienne – Denis KudlaKudla (3-6 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Fabio FogniniFognini – Bernabe Zapata MirallesZapata Miralles (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Gael MonfilsMonfils – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Aleksandar VukicVukic (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Adrian MannarinoMannarino – Tomas MachacMachac (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Milos RaonicRaonic – Sumit NagalNagal (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jan-Lennard StruffStruff – Borna CoricCoric (3-2) – H2H and prediction
- Yannick HanfmannHanfmann – Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Lucas PouillePouille – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Taro DanielDaniel – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Thanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis – Jannik SinnerSinner (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Christopher O ConnellO Connell (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander BublikBublik – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Thiago Seyboth WildSeyboth Wild (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Roman SafiullinSafiullin – Sebastian KordaKorda (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Hugo GrenierGrenier – Alexandre MullerMuller (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Andrey RublevRublev – Andy MurrayMurray (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Tommy PaulPaul – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Dusan LajovicLajovic (4-1) – H2H and prediction
- Nicolas Moreno De AlboranMoreno De Alboran – Lukas KleinKlein (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Aleksandar KovacevicKovacevic – Zhizhen ZhangZhang (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Constant LestienneLestienne (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Pavel KotovKotov – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Fabian MarozsanMarozsan – Nicolas JarryJarry (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ShevchenkoShevchenko – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Flavio CobolliCobolli – Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena (0-0) – H2H and prediction
