Elena Rybakina and Liudmila Samsonova will square off in the semifinal of the China Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 4:30 pm on Diamond. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Elena Rybakina who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Elena Rybakina is the pick to win this match.
Elena Rybakina -> 1.49
Liudmila Samsonova -> 2.62
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Â
Prediction and head to head Elena Rybakina vs. Liudmila Samsonova
This will be the 4th time that Elena Rybakina and Liudmila Samsonova face off. The head to head is 3-0 for Samsonova (see full H2H stats), 3-0 on hard.
The last time that they played, Samsonova won 1-6 6-1 6-2 in the semifinal in Montreal back in August 2023.
Elena Rybakina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 42-11 | 23-5 | 12-2 | 1-2 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 47-15 | 31-11 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-21 | 18-12 | 9-5 | 5-2 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 18-14 | 6-4 | 2-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 18-5 | 7-3 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5, the Kazakhstani reached the semifinal after defeating Qinwen Zheng 6-1 6-2, Tatjana Maria 7-5 6-0, Mirra Andreeva 2-6 6-4 6-1 and Aryna Sabalenka 7-5 6-2.
In the quarter, Rybakina had a good straight sets win against Sabalenka (7-5 6-2). During the match, Rybakina scored 72 points vs Sabalenka’s 59. The Kazakhstani was quite aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Talking about the service games, Rybakina fired 12 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Elena Rybakina lost the serve once. Furthermore, Rybakina put 62% of her first serves in, winning 77% (30/39) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (12/24) on the 2nd serve. Rybakina broke Sabalenka 4 times after converting 44% of her break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Kazakhstani has lost 1 set in this tournament to conquer 58% of the points she played.
Rybakina has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 69% of her matches (288-129). 30-8 on hard in 2023. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Rybakina has an overall126-63 win-loss record in the last 9 years on hard.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Indian Wells where she beat Aryna Sabalenka in the final 7-6(11) 6-4 and in Rome where she beat Anhelina Kalinina in the final 6-4 1-0 ret..
The Kazakhstani has a compiled 46-12 win-loss record in 2023, 30-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
The Kazakhstani has never competed in this tournament before.
Liudmila Samsonova
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26-23 | 12-15 | 6-5 | 0-0 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 34-24 | 25-15 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-17 | 26-10 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 39-22 | 15-9 | 6-9 | 8-3 | 10-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 20-12 | 10-6 | 4-4 | 6-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 22, the Russian reached the semifinal after beating Alycia Parks 6-4 7-64, Petra Kvitova 6-4 7-5, Marta Kostyuk 6-4 6-74 7-5 and Jelena Ostapenko 6-3 6-2.
In the quarter, Samsonova had a good straight sets win against Ostapenko (6-3 6-2). During the match Samsonova scored 60 points vs Ostapenko’s 40. Ludmilla was exceptionally aggressive to blast 21 winners.
About the serving games, Samsonova managed to score 7 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Liudmila Samsonova lost the serve once. Furthermore, Samsonova put 58% of her first serves in, winning 91% (21/23) of the points behind her 1st serve and 47% (8/17) on the 2nd serve. Samsonova broke Ostapenko 5 times after converting 63% of her break points (5/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Ludmilla has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
Samsonova’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in Abu Dhabi and Montreal.
The Russian has a compiled 31-21 win-loss record in 2023, 23-13 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Rybakina | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 78 | 97 |
| Pts | 273-196 | 343-291 |
| Total Points | 469 | 634 |
| Winners | 108 | 126 |
| %Winners | 40% | 37% |
Both Rybakina and Samsonova played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Elena Rybakina conceded 1 set, while Liudmila Samsonova dropped 1 set. Talking about their workload, Rybakina and Samsonova have played the same amount of sets 9. However, Rybakina played 19 games less than Samsonova. Elena scored 108 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Ludmilla bagged 126 winners (37%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Rybakina | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 34 | 22 |
| Avg per match | 8.5 | 5.5 |
| 1st in | 136/241 | 174/304 |
| %1st in | 56% | 57% |
| 1st pts | 108/136 | 126/174 |
| %1st pts | 79% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 55/105 | 63/130 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 48% |
Rybakina recorded 34 aces (8.5 per match). Samsonova bagged 22 aces (5.5 per match). Rybakina won 79% points behind her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Samsonova won 72% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 48% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Rybakina | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 17 | 21 |
| Converted | 17/28 | 21/46 |
| % Converted | 61% | 46% |
| Conceded | 11 | 30 |
| Saved | 6 | 18 |
| % Saved | 55% | 60% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 12 |
Elena broke her opponents 17 times with a 61% conversion rate. Rybakina conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 55% of the break points that she conceded. Ludmilla broke her opponents 21 times with a 46% conversion rate. Samsonova conceded her serve 12 times and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded.
| Rybakina | ||||||
| R1 Zheng |
R2 Maria |
R3 Andreeva |
1/4 Sabalenka |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-2 | 7-5 6-0 | 2-6 6-4 6-1 | 7-5 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 18 | 25 | 20 | 78 | |
| pts | 54-28 | 63-36 | 84-73 | 72-59 | 273-196 | |
| Total points | 82 | 99 | 157 | 131 | 469 | |
| Winners | 22 | 20 | 36 | 30 | 108 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 32% | 43% | 42% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 3 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 34 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 25/44 | 23/46 | 49/88 | 39/63 | 136/241 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 50% | 56% | 62% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 22/25 | 20/23 | 36/49 | 30/39 | 108/136 | |
| % 1st pts | 88% | 87% | 73% | 77% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/19 | 14/23 | 18/39 | 12/24 | 55/105 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 61% | 46% | 50% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 5/7 | 4/5 | 4/9 | 17/28 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 71% | 80% | 44% | 61% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 11 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 0/1 | 6/9 | 0/1 | 6 | |
| Saved % | – | 0% | 67% | 0% | 17% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | |
| Samsonova | ||||||
| R1 Parks |
R2 Kvitova |
R3 Kostyuk |
1/4 Ostapenko |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-64 | 6-4 7-5 | 6-4 6-74 7-5 | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 22 | 35 | 17 | 97 | |
| pts | 82-74 | 78-63 | 123-114 | 60-40 | 343-291 | |
| Total points | 156 | 141 | 237 | 100 | 634 | |
| Winners | 29 | 31 | 45 | 21 | 126 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 40% | 37% | 35% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 22 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 21 | |
| 1st in | 45/88 | 39/67 | 67/109 | 23/40 | 174/304 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 58% | 61% | 58% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 29/45 | 31/39 | 45/67 | 21/23 | 126/174 | |
| % 1st pts | 64% | 79% | 67% | 91% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/43 | 14/28 | 19/42 | 8/17 | 63/130 | |
| % 2nd pts | 51% | 50% | 45% | 47% | 48% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 21 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 4/9 | 7/20 | 5/8 | 21/46 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 44% | 35% | 63% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 13 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 30 | |
| Saved | 9/13 | 1/3 | 8/13 | 0/1 | 18 | |
| Saved % | 69% | 33% | 62% | 0% | 41% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | |
Head 2 Head
WLLWLLWWWW
LLLLWWWLWW Tennis Scores in Beijing
- Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Caroline GarciaGarcia (6-78 7-65 6-1) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Maria SakkariSakkari (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
- Magda Linette/Peyton StearnsLinette/Peyton Stearns – Beatriz Haddad Maia/Veronika KudermetovaHaddad Maia/Veronika Kudermetova (1-6 7-63 10-8) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-7) – H2H and prediction
