Alexandre Muller and Francesco Maestrelli will fight against each other in the final of the Montechiarugolo Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 5:00 pm on CENTER COURT. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alexandre Muller who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Alexandre Muller is the pick to win this match.
Alexandre Muller -> 1.58
Francesco Maestrelli -> 2.31
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Prediction and head to head Alexandre Muller vs. Francesco Maestrelli
This will be the 2nd time that Alexandre Muller and Francesco Maestrelli face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Maestrelli (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they squared off, Maestrelli won 3-6 7-6(2) 6-1 in the 1st round in the Todi Challenger back in 2022.
Alexandre Muller
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 35-32 | 11-14 | 20-12 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-33 | 20-13 | 18-12 | 7-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 38-31 | 6-6 | 27-20 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 27-31 | 6-7 | 16-15 | 5-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 21-13 | 3-2 | 15-9 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 103, Muller got to the final after defeating Alex Marti Pujolras 6-4 6-3, Federico Gaio 7-5 6-2, Alessandro Giannessi 3-6 6-3 6-1 and Stefano Travaglia 4-6 6-3 6-4.
In the semifinal against Travaglia, Muller recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-3 6-4). During the match, Muller scored 85 points vs Travaglia’s 75. Alexandre was pretty aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Regarding the service games, Muller struck 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Alexandre Muller lost the serve twice and he saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Muller put 54% of his first serves in, winning 67% (30/45) of the points behind his 1st serve and 77% (30/39) on the 2nd serve. The French player broke Travaglia 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Muller has conceded 2 set in this competition to conquer 55% of the points he played.
Muller has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 61% of his matches (351-224). 17-9 on clay in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Muller has an overall211-130 win-loss record in the last 9 years on clay.
The French player best result of the year was getting to the final in the Waco Challenger and Marrakech.
Alexandre has an aggregate 34-18 win-loss record in 2023, 17-9 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Montechiarugolo Challenger
Alexandre has never competed in this tournament before.
Francesco Maestrelli
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 32-33 | 11-6 | 21-23 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 27-38 | 9-10 | 16-24 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-24 | 5-4 | 34-12 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 32-18 | 8-3 | 18-12 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 183, Francesco got to the final after beating Jaume Antoni Munar Clar 7-5 6-3, Stefano Napolitano 7-63 6-3, Andrea Collarini 6-4 6-0 and Giulio Zeppieri 6-4 6-74 7-62.
In the semifinal, Maestrelli defeated Zeppieri (6-4 6-74 7-62). During the match Maestrelli scored 128 points vs Zeppieri’s 113. Maestrelli was extremely aggressive to blast 52 winners.
About the serving games, Maestrelli fired 7 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Francesco Maestrelli was pretty effective on serve to win 76% (52/68) of his 1st serve and 58% (25/43) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Italian broke Zeppieri twice after converting 18% of his break points (2/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
Maestrelli’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in the Tenerife 1 Challenger and the Montechiarugolo Challenger.
Maestrelli has an overall 18-19 win-loss record in 2023, 9-11 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Muller | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 93 | 95 |
| Pts | 300-249 | 357-294 |
| Total Points | 549 | 651 |
| Winners | 123 | 140 |
| %Winners | 41% | 39% |
Both Muller and Maestrelli played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Alexandre Muller lost 2 sets, while Francesco Maestrelli surrendered 1 set. Muller has played 1 set more than Maestrelli (10 vs 9). However, it’s interesting to notice that Muller played 2 games less than Maestrelli. Muller scored 123 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, The Italian scored 140 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Muller | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 14 | 22 |
| Avg per match | 3.5 | 5.5 |
| 1st in | 169/259 | 197/319 |
| %1st in | 65% | 62% |
| 1st pts | 123/169 | 140/197 |
| %1st pts | 73% | 71% |
| 2nd pts | 57/90 | 70/122 |
| %2nd pts | 63% | 57% |
Muller recorded 14 aces (3.5 per match). Maestrelli blasted 22 aces (5.5 per match). Muller won 73% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 63% of the points. On the other side, Maestrelli won 71% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Muller | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 16 | 14 |
| Converted | 16/40 | 14/38 |
| % Converted | 40% | 37% |
| Conceded | 22 | 22 |
| Saved | 15 | 16 |
| % Saved | 68% | 73% |
| Times Broken | 7 | 6 |
Alexandre broke his opponents 16 times with a 40% conversion rate. The French player lost his serve 7 times and he saved 68% of the break points that he conceded. Francesco broke his opponents 14 times with a 37% conversion rate. Maestrelli conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 73% of the break points that he conceded.
| Muller | ||||||
| R1 Marti |
R2 Gaio |
1/4 Giannessi |
1/2 Travaglia |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 7-5 6-2 | 3-6 6-3 6-1 | 4-6 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 20 | 25 | 29 | 93 | |
| pts | 70-61 | 63-49 | 82-64 | 85-75 | 300-249 | |
| Total points | 131 | 112 | 146 | 160 | 549 | |
| Winners | 26 | 33 | 34 | 30 | 123 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 52% | 41% | 35% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 36/53 | 42/54 | 46/68 | 45/84 | 169/259 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 78% | 68% | 54% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 26/36 | 33/42 | 34/46 | 30/45 | 123/169 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 79% | 74% | 67% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 6/17 | 6/12 | 15/22 | 30/39 | 57/90 | |
| % 2nd pts | 35% | 50% | 68% | 77% | 63% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | |
| Converted | 5/12 | 4/9 | 4/12 | 3/7 | 16/40 | |
| Converted % | 42% | 44% | 33% | 43% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 22 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 2/3 | 2/4 | 8/10 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 67% | 50% | 80% | 64% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Maestrelli | ||||||
| R1 Munar Clar |
R2 Napolitano |
1/4 Collarini |
1/2 Zeppieri |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-3 | 7-63 6-3 | 6-4 6-0 | 6-4 6-74 7-62 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 22 | 16 | 36 | 95 | |
| pts | 79-65 | 84-71 | 66-45 | 128-113 | 357-294 | |
| Total points | 144 | 155 | 111 | 241 | 651 | |
| Winners | 29 | 36 | 23 | 52 | 140 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 43% | 35% | 41% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 22 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 47/77 | 51/82 | 31/49 | 68/111 | 197/319 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 62% | 63% | 61% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 29/47 | 36/51 | 23/31 | 52/68 | 140/197 | |
| % 1st pts | 62% | 71% | 74% | 76% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/30 | 18/31 | 10/18 | 25/43 | 70/122 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 58% | 56% | 58% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 | |
| Converted | 5/12 | 2/6 | 5/9 | 2/11 | 14/38 | |
| Converted % | 42% | 33% | 56% | 18% | 37% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 22 | |
| Saved | 5/8 | 4/5 | 3/4 | 4/5 | 16 | |
| Saved % | 63% | 80% | 75% | 80% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Francesco MaestrelliMaestrelli – Alexandre MullerMuller (1-0) – H2H and prediction
