Andrey Rublev and Holger Rune will face off in the final of the ATP1000 Master in Monte-Carlo for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 2:30 pm on COURT RAINIER III. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Holger Rune who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Holger Rune is the pick to win this match.
Holger Rune -> 1.6
Andrey Rublev -> 2.34
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Prediction and head to head Andrey Rublev vs. Holger Rune
This will be the 3rd time that Andrey Rublev and Holger Rune clash against each other. The head to head is 1-1 for Rublev and Rune (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.
The last time that they played each other, Rublev won 6-3 3-6 6-3 4-6 7-6(9) in the 4th round in at the Australian Open back in January 2023.
Highlights Andrey Rublev vs Holger Rune – Australian Open 23-January-2023
Andrey Rublev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26-14 | 13-5 | 11-6 | 2-1 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 56-26 | 23-12 | 19-5 | 6-7 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 51-20 | 19-7 | 14-6 | 18-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 53-23 | 25-10 | 9-5 | 12-6 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 41-10 | 17-4 | 10-2 | 14-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6, the Russian reached the final after defeating Jaume Antoni Munar Clar 4-6 6-2 6-2, Karen Khachanov 7-64 6-2, Jan-Lennard Struff 6-1 7-65 and Taylor Fritz 5-7 6-1 6-3.
In the semifinal against Fritz, Rublev recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (5-7 6-1 6-3). During the match, Rublev scored 100 points vs Fritz’s 84. Andrey was extremely aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about the service games, Rublev blasted 2 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Andrey Rublev lost the serve 5 times and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Rublev put 55% of his first serves in, winning 65% (31/48) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (20/40) on the 2nd serve. Rublev broke Fritz 8 times after converting 38% of his break points (8/21).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Andrey has surrendered 2 set in this tournament to conquer 54% of the points he played.
Rublev has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (379-213). 4-0 on clay in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Rublev has a composed 87-58 record in the last years on clay.
The Russian’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Dubai.
Andrey has a compiled 17-8 win-loss record in 2023, 4-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Holger Rune
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27-15 | 10-5 | 11-6 | 3-2 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 44-24 | 10-10 | 16-4 | 11-8 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-27 | 8-9 | 21-11 | 21-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 73-29 | 11-5 | 41-17 | 21-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 32-16 | 1-3 | 28-11 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 9, Holger reached the final after beating Dominic Thiem 6-2 6-4, Matteo Berrettini w/o, Daniil Medvedev 6-3 6-4 and Jannik Sinner 1-6 7-5 7-5.
In the semifinal against Sinner, Holger recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 7-5 7-5).During the match Rune scored less points (4) than Sinner. In fact, the world no. 6 won 99 points vs Sinner’s. That means that Rune was more focused during the important points. Rune was extremely aggressive to blast 38 winners.
About the serving games, Rune recorded 4 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Holger Rune lost the serve 3 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Rune put 65% of his first serves in, winning 68% (38/56) of the points behind his 1st serve and 53% (16/30) on the 2nd serve. Rune broke Sinner 3 times after converting 21% of his break points (3/14).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Rune has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
Rune’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in Montpellier, Acapulco and Carlo.
The Dane has an overall 17-7 win-loss record in 2023, 3-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2022. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Rublev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 95 | 68 |
| Pts | 336-282 | 224-202 |
| Total Points | 618 | 426 |
| Winners | 112 | 86 |
| %Winners | 33% | 38% |
Rublev played 4 matches while Rune competed in 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Andrey Rublev conceded 2 sets, while Holger Rune dropped 1 set. Rublev has played 3 sets more than Rune (10 vs 7). Therefore, Rublev played 27 games more than Rune. Andrey scored 112 winners (33% of the total points). On the other side, Rune scored 86 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Rublev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 15 | 5 |
| Avg per match | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 1st in | 164/311 | 118/194 |
| %1st in | 53% | 61% |
| 1st pts | 112/164 | 86/118 |
| %1st pts | 68% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 76/147 | 45/76 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 59% |
Rublev managed to score 15 aces (3.8 per match). Rune recorded 5 aces (1.7 per match). Rublev won 68% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Rune won 73% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 59% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Rublev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 21 | 9 |
| Converted | 21/48 | 9/28 |
| % Converted | 44% | 32% |
| Conceded | 20 | 11 |
| Saved | 9 | 7 |
| % Saved | 45% | 64% |
| Times Broken | 11 | 4 |
Andrey broke his opponents 21 times with a 44% conversion rate. The Russian conceded his serve 11 times and he saved 45% of the break points that he conceded. Rune broke his opponents 9 times with a 32% conversion rate. Holger conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded.
| Rublev | ||||||
| R2 Munar Clar |
R3 Khachanov |
1/4 Struff |
1/2 Fritz |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-2 6-2 | 7-64 6-2 | 6-1 7-65 | 5-7 6-1 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 21 | 20 | 28 | 95 | |
| pts | 87-76 | 70-57 | 79-65 | 100-84 | 336-282 | |
| Total points | 163 | 127 | 144 | 184 | 618 | |
| Winners | 27 | 27 | 27 | 31 | 112 | |
| %Winners | 31% | 39% | 34% | 31% | 33% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 40/90 | 41/63 | 35/70 | 48/88 | 164/311 | |
| % 1st in | 44% | 65% | 50% | 55% | 53% | |
| 1st pts | 27/40 | 27/41 | 27/35 | 31/48 | 112/164 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 66% | 77% | 65% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 25/50 | 15/22 | 16/35 | 20/40 | 76/147 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 68% | 46% | 50% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 21 | |
| Converted | 6/10 | 3/3 | 4/14 | 8/21 | 21/48 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 100% | 29% | 38% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 20 | |
| Saved | 5/8 | 0/1 | 1/3 | 3/8 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 63% | 0% | 33% | 38% | 34% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | |
| Rune | ||||||
| R2 Thiem |
R3 Berrettini |
1/4 Medvedev |
1/2 Sinner |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-4 | w/o | 6-3 6-4 | 1-6 7-5 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | – | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | – | 19 | 31 | 68 | |
| pts | 64-50 | – | 61-49 | 99-103 | 224-202 | |
| Total points | 114 | – | 110 | 202 | 426 | |
| Winners | 28 | – | 20 | 38 | 86 | |
| %Winners | 44% | – | 33% | 38% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 0 | – | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | – | 2 | 5 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 35/56 | – | 27/52 | 56/86 | 118/194 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | – | 52% | 65% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 28/35 | – | 20/27 | 38/56 | 86/118 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | – | 74% | 68% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/21 | – | 18/25 | 16/30 | 45/76 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | – | 72% | 53% | 59% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | – | 3 | 3 | 9 | |
| Converted | 3/9 | – | 3/5 | 3/14 | 9/28 | |
| Converted % | 33% | – | 60% | 21% | 32% | |
| Conceded | 2 | – | 2 | 7 | 11 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | – | 1/2 | 4/7 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 100% | – | 50% | 57% | 52% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | – | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
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