Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will play each other in the semifinal of the BNP Paribas Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 3:30 pm on STADIUM 1. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.52
Jannik Sinner -> 2.53
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner
This will be the 6th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner fight against each other. The head to head is 3-2 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Alcaraz won 6-3 6-7(7) 6-7(0) 7-5 6-3 in the quarter in at the U.S. Open back in 2022.
Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner – U.S. Open 07-September-2022
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 39-7 | 10-0 | 29-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, the Spaniard got to the semifinal after defeating Thanasi Kokkinakis 6-3 6-3, Tallon Griekspoor 7-64 6-3, Jack Draper 6-2 2-0 ret. and Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-4 6-4.
In the quarter, Carlos had a good straight sets win against Auger-Aliassime (6-4 6-4). During the match, Alcaraz scored 77 points vs Auger-Aliassime’s 63. Carlos was very aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Talking about the service games, Alcaraz fired 2 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Carlos Alcaraz was extremely efficient on serve to win 81% (29/36) of his 1st serve and 59% (13/22) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Alcaraz broke Auger-Aliassime 3 times after converting 25% of his break points (3/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Alcaraz hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this event to win 56% of the points he played.
Alcaraz has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 6 years having won 78% of his matches (180-52). 4-0 on hard in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Alcaraz has an overall53-14 record in the last 6 years on hard.
His best result of the season was winning the title in Buenos Aires where he beat Cameron Norrie in the final 6-3 7-5.
Alcaraz has an aggregate 12-1 win-loss record in 2023, 4-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Jannik Sinner
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 72-6 | 40-3 | 11-2 | 12-0 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 64-15 | 28-7 | 8-3 | 20-2 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-16 | 21-6 | 15-4 | 7-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 49-22 | 22-8 | 10-6 | 17-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 20-14 | 2-6 | 7-3 | 11-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 13, Jannik got to the semifinal after beating Richard Gasquet 6-3 7-62, Adrian Mannarino 7-67 6-4, Stan Wawrinka 6-1 6-4 and Taylor Fritz 6-4 4-6 6-4.
In the quarter, Jannik defeated Fritz (6-4 4-6 6-4). During the match Sinner scored 94 points vs Fritz’s 86. Jannik was quite aggressive to blast 45 winners.
Talking about serving, Sinner struck 5 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Jannik Sinner lost the serve twice and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Sinner put 64% of his first serves in, winning 80% (45/56) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (15/32) on the 2nd serve. Jannik broke Fritz 3 times after converting 33% of his break points (3/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sinner has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
His best result of the current year was conquering the title in Montpellier where he beat Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(3) 6-3.
The Italian has a composed 16-3 win-loss record in 2023, 9-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, his best result was reaching the 4th round in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 70 | 92 |
| Pts | 255-190 | 314-258 |
| Total Points | 445 | 572 |
| Winners | 101 | 124 |
| %Winners | 40% | 39% |
Both Alcaraz and Sinner played 4 matches. At the moment, Jannik Sinner surrendered 1 set while Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t conceded a set so far. Talking about their workload, Alcaraz and Sinner have played the same amount of sets 9. However, Alcaraz played 22 games less than Sinner. Carlos scored 101 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Jannik recorded 124 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 6 | 25 |
| Avg per match | 1.5 | 6.3 |
| 1st in | 128/201 | 155/279 |
| %1st in | 64% | 56% |
| 1st pts | 101/128 | 124/155 |
| %1st pts | 79% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 52/73 | 74/124 |
| %2nd pts | 71% | 60% |
Alcaraz managed to score 6 aces (1.5 per match). Sinner made 25 aces (6.3 per match). Alcaraz won 79% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 71% of the points. On the other side, Sinner won 80% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 10 | 10 |
| Converted | 10/30 | 10/29 |
| % Converted | 33% | 34% |
| Conceded | 9 | 14 |
| Saved | 8 | 10 |
| % Saved | 89% | 71% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 4 |
Alcaraz broke his opponents 10 times with a 33% conversion rate. Alcaraz surrendered his serve once and he saved 89% of the break points that he conceded. Jannik broke his opponents 10 times with a 34% conversion rate. Sinner conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | ||||||
| R2 Kokkinakis |
R3 Griekspoor |
R4 Draper |
1/4 Auger-Aliassime |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-3 | 7-64 6-3 | 6-2 2-0 ret. | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 22 | 10 | 20 | 70 | |
| pts | 61-42 | 76-65 | 41-20 | 77-63 | 255-190 | |
| Total points | 103 | 141 | 61 | 140 | 445 | |
| Winners | 23 | 33 | 16 | 29 | 101 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 43% | 39% | 38% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 28/44 | 44/72 | 20/27 | 36/58 | 128/201 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 61% | 74% | 62% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 23/28 | 33/44 | 16/20 | 29/36 | 101/128 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | 75% | 80% | 81% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/16 | 19/28 | 6/7 | 13/22 | 52/73 | |
| % 2nd pts | 88% | 68% | 86% | 59% | 71% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | |
| Converted | 3/9 | 1/4 | 3/5 | 3/12 | 10/30 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 25% | 60% | 25% | 33% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 2/2 | 3/3 | 3/4 | 8 | |
| Saved % | – | 100% | 100% | 75% | 69% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sinner | ||||||
| R2 Gasquet |
R3 Mannarino |
R4 Wawrinka |
1/4 Fritz |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-62 | 7-67 6-4 | 6-1 6-4 | 6-4 4-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 23 | 17 | 30 | 92 | |
| pts | 74-58 | 73-60 | 73-54 | 94-86 | 314-258 | |
| Total points | 132 | 133 | 127 | 180 | 572 | |
| Winners | 31 | 27 | 21 | 45 | 124 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 37% | 29% | 48% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 9 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 25 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 35/66 | 33/61 | 31/64 | 56/88 | 155/279 | |
| % 1st in | 53% | 54% | 48% | 64% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 31/35 | 27/33 | 21/31 | 45/56 | 124/155 | |
| % 1st pts | 89% | 82% | 68% | 80% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/31 | 22/28 | 20/33 | 15/32 | 74/124 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 79% | 61% | 47% | 60% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | |
| Converted | 2/4 | 1/2 | 4/14 | 3/9 | 10/29 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | 29% | 33% | 34% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 14 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 0/0 | 8/9 | 1/3 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 50% | – | 89% | 33% | 43% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
WLWLLWLWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Wesley Koolhof/Neal SkupskiKoolhof/Neal Skupski – Santiago Gonzalez/Edouard Roger-VasselinGonzalez/Edouard Roger-Vasselin (6-3 4-6 10-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Jannik SinnerSinner (3-2) – H2H and prediction
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (4-1) – H2H and prediction
