Shintaro Mochizuki and Keegan Smith will play each other in the qualifications of the Nonthaburi 3 Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 12:30 pm on COURT A. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Shintaro Mochizuki who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Shintaro Mochizuki is the pick to win this match.
Shintaro Mochizuki -> 1.68
Keegan Smith -> 2.09
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Prediction and head to head Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Keegan Smith
This will be the 2nd time that Shintaro Mochizuki and Keegan Smith square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Smith (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Smith won 6-3 2-6 6-4 in the qualifications in the Mexico City Challenger back in 2022.
Shintaro Mochizuki
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21-27 | 12-17 | 7-5 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-33 | 22-16 | 13-8 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-34 | 18-17 | 13-12 | 6-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-30 | 11-10 | 18-11 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| 2020 | 20-14 | 14-12 | 6-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 319, the Japanese reached the qualifications after defeating Sumit Nagal 6-4 1-6 7-5.
In the qualifications, Shintaro defeated Nagal (6-4 1-6 7-5).During the match, Mochizuki scored less points (9) than Nagal. In fact, the world no. 319 won 89 points vs Nagal’s. That means that Mochizuki was more focused during the important points. Shintaro was extremely aggressive to blast 35 winners.
Regarding the service games, Mochizuki blasted 4 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Shintaro Mochizuki lost the serve 5 times and he saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Mochizuki put 56% of his first serves in, winning 65% (35/54) of the points behind his 1st serve and 40% (17/42) on the 2nd serve. The Japanese broke Nagal 5 times after converting 56% of his break points (5/9).
Mochizuki has a winning record in the last 6 years having won 55% of his matches (107-89). 1-2 on hard in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Mochizuki has a compiled56-49 match record in the last 6 years on hard.
Mochizuki has a compiled 1-2 win-loss record in 2023, 1-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Nonthaburi 3 Challenger
Keegan Smith
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28-18 | 28-16 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 35-26 | 31-20 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-24 | 26-14 | 3-4 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 16-5 | 8-2 | 0-0 | 8-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 7-4 | 7-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 406, the American reached the qualifications after beating Giovanni Oradini 3-6 6-1 7-65.
In the qualifications against Oradini, Smith recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-1 7-65). During the match Smith scored 102 points vs Oradini’s 101. Keegan was exceptionally aggressive to blast 57 winners.
About the serving games, Smith scored 14 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Keegan Smith lost the serve twice and he saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Smith put 72% of his first serves in, winning 70% (57/82) of the points behind his 1st serve and 44% (14/32) on the 2nd serve. Keegan was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Oradini 3 times.
Keegan has a composed 1-1 win-loss record in 2023, 1-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Mochizuki | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 29 | 29 |
| Pts | 89-98 | 102-101 |
| Total Points | 187 | 203 |
| Winners | 35 | 57 |
| %Winners | 39% | 56% |
Both Mochizuki and Smith played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players lost a set in the event. Shintaro Mochizuki lost 1 set, while Keegan Smith conceded 1 set. Talking about their workload, Mochizuki and Smith have played the same amount of sets 3. They also played the same amount of games (29). Shintaro scored 35 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Keegan struck 57 winners (56%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Mochizuki | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 4 | 14 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 14 |
| 1st in | 54/96 | 82/114 |
| %1st in | 56% | 72% |
| 1st pts | 35/54 | 57/82 |
| %1st pts | 65% | 70% |
| 2nd pts | 17/42 | 14/32 |
| %2nd pts | 40% | 44% |
Mochizuki scored 4 aces . Smith made 14 aces . Mochizuki won 65% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 40% of the points. On the other side, Smith won 70% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 44% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Mochizuki | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 5 | 3 |
| Converted | 5/9 | 3/3 |
| % Converted | 56% | 100% |
| Conceded | 14 | 11 |
| Saved | 9 | 9 |
| % Saved | 64% | 82% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 2 |
The Japanese broke his opponent 5 times with a 56% conversion rate. The Japanese surrendered his serve 5 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded. The American broke his opponent 3 times with a 100% conversion rate. Smith conceded his serve twice and he saved 82% of the break points that he conceded.
| Mochizuki | |||
| Q1 Nagal |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 1-6 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 29 | 29 | |
| pts | 89-98 | 89-98 | |
| Total points | 187 | 187 | |
| Winners | 35 | 35 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 54/96 | 54/96 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 35/54 | 35/54 | |
| % 1st pts | 65% | 65% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/42 | 17/42 | |
| % 2nd pts | 40% | 40% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 5/9 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 56% | |
| Conceded | 14 | 14 | |
| Saved | 9/14 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 64% | 64% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 5 | |
| Smith | |||
| Q1 Oradini |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 6-1 7-65 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 29 | 29 | |
| pts | 102-101 | 102-101 | |
| Total points | 203 | 203 | |
| Winners | 57 | 57 | |
| %Winners | 56% | 56% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 14 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 82/114 | 82/114 | |
| % 1st in | 72% | 72% | |
| 1st pts | 57/82 | 57/82 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/32 | 14/32 | |
| % 2nd pts | 44% | 44% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/3 | 3/3 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 100% | |
| Conceded | 11 | 11 | |
| Saved | 9/11 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 82% | 82% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
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