Felix Auger-Aliassime and Lorenzo Musetti will play each other in the semifinal of the Firenze Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 8:30 pm on CAMPO CENTRALE. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Felix Auger-Aliassime who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Felix Auger-Aliassime is the pick to win this match.
Felix Auger-Aliassime -> 1.47
Lorenzo Musetti -> 2.76
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Prediction and head to head Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Lorenzo Musetti
This will be the 4th time that Felix Auger-Aliassime and Lorenzo Musetti fight against each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Musetti (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on indoor hard courts.
The last time that they played, Musetti won 6-2 7-6(2) in the 2nd round in Monte carlo back in April 2022.
Highlights Lorenzo Musetti vs Felix Auger-Aliassime – Monte carlo 13-April-2022
Felix Auger-Aliassime
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 50-25 | 24-10 | 3-6 | 17-5 | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 32-25 | 6-10 | 17-8 | 9-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 23-19 | 13-13 | 1-3 | 9-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 60-27 | 14-9 | 11-7 | 31-7 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-24 | 19-10 | 4-6 | 5-5 | 10-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 13, the Canadian reached the semifinal after beating Oscar Otte 6-4 6-72 6-2 and Brandon Nakashima 6-3 6-4.
In the quarter, The Canadian had a good straight sets win against Nakashima (6-3 6-4). During the match, Auger-Aliassime scored 59 points vs Nakashima’s 51. Felix was extremely aggressive to blast 35 winners.
Talking about the service games, Auger-Aliassime made 7 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Felix Auger-Aliassime lost the serve once and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Auger-Aliassime put 66% of his first serves in, winning 90% (35/39) of the points behind his 1st serve and 30% (6/20) on the 2nd serve. Felix broke Nakashima 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Auger-Aliassime has dropped 1 set in this event to conquer 52% of the points he played.
Auger-Aliassime has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 63% of his matches (266-156). 13-4 on indoor hard courts in 2022. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Auger-Aliassime has a compiled50-30 win-loss record in the last 8 years on indoor hard courts.
His best result of the season was conquering the title in Rotterdam where he beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final 6-4 6-2.
Auger-Aliassime has a composed 42-24 win-loss record in 2022, 13-4 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Florence
Felix has never competed in this tournament before.
Lorenzo Musetti
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 45-22 | 18-11 | 19-4 | 8-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 46-30 | 13-12 | 18-10 | 3-5 | 12-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-29 | 10-10 | 16-11 | 0-5 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-30 | 11-10 | 21-7 | 12-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-31 | 9-8 | 17-12 | 10-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 28, Musetti got to the semifinal after beating Bernabe Zapata Miralles 6-3 6-0 and Mackenzie Mcdonald 6-3 6-2.
In the quarter, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Mcdonald (6-3 6-2). During the match Musetti scored 62 points vs Mcdonald’s 38. The Italian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Talking about serving, Musetti fired 3 aces and he was pretty steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Overall, Lorenzo Musetti was exceptionally effective on serve to win 73% (29/40) of his 1st serve and 70% (7/10) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Musetti broke Mcdonald 4 times after converting 57% of his break points (4/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 64% of the points he played.
His best result of the season was winning the title in Hamburg where he overcame Carlos Alcaraz in the final 6-4 6-7(6) 6-4.
The Italian has an aggregate 36-23 win-loss record in 2022, 8-3 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Auger-Aliassime | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 50 | 32 |
| Pts | 154-141 | 121-68 |
| Total Points | 295 | 189 |
| Winners | 78 | 49 |
| %Winners | 51% | 40% |
Both Auger-Aliassime and Musetti played 2 matches. At the moment, Felix Auger-Aliassime conceded 1 set while Lorenzo Musetti hasn’t dropped a set so far. Auger-Aliassime has played 1 set more than Musetti (5 vs 4). Therefore, Auger-Aliassime played 18 games more than Musetti. Auger-Aliassime scored 78 winners (51% of the total points). On the other side, Lorenzo struck 49 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Auger-Aliassime | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 20 | 12 |
| Avg per match | 10 | 6 |
| 1st in | 100/153 | 62/88 |
| %1st in | 65% | 70% |
| 1st pts | 78/100 | 49/62 |
| %1st pts | 78% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 25/53 | 19/26 |
| %2nd pts | 47% | 73% |
Auger-Aliassime struck 20 aces (10 per match). Musetti bagged 12 aces (6 per match). Auger-Aliassime won 78% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Musetti won 79% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 73% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Auger-Aliassime | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 8 |
| Converted | 8/15 | 8/16 |
| % Converted | 53% | 50% |
| Conceded | 9 | 5 |
| Saved | 6 | 4 |
| % Saved | 67% | 80% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 1 |
The Canadian broke his opponents 8 times with a 53% conversion rate. The Canadian surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. Lorenzo broke his opponents 8 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve once and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded.
| Auger-Aliassime | ||||
| R2 Otte |
1/4 Nakashima |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-72 6-2 | 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 19 | 50 | |
| pts | 95-90 | 59-51 | 154-141 | |
| Total points | 185 | 110 | 295 | |
| Winners | 43 | 35 | 78 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 59% | 51% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 13 | 7 | 20 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 61/94 | 39/59 | 100/153 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 66% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 43/61 | 35/39 | 78/100 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 90% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/33 | 6/20 | 25/53 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 30% | 47% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 3 | 8 | |
| Converted | 5/10 | 3/5 | 8/15 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 60% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 3 | 9 | |
| Saved | 4/6 | 2/3 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 67% | 67% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Musetti | ||||
| R2 Zapata Miralles |
1/4 Mcdonald |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-0 | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 17 | 32 | |
| pts | 59-30 | 62-38 | 121-68 | |
| Total points | 89 | 100 | 189 | |
| Winners | 20 | 29 | 49 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 47% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 9 | 3 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 22/38 | 40/50 | 62/88 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 80% | 70% | |
| 1st pts | 20/22 | 29/40 | 49/62 | |
| % 1st pts | 91% | 73% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/16 | 7/10 | 19/26 | |
| % 2nd pts | 75% | 70% | 73% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 4/7 | 8/16 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 57% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 5 | 5 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 4/5 | 4 | |
| Saved % | – | 80% | 40% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLLWWWWW
LWLLWWWLLW Tennis Scores in Florence
- Jeff WolfWolf – Alexander BublikBublik (3-6 7-5 6-1) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Mikael YmerYmer – Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Nicolas Mahut/Edouard Roger-VasselinMahut/Edouard Roger-Vasselin – Maxime Cressy/John-Patrick SmithCressy/John-Patrick Smith (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Lorenzo Sonego/Andrea VavassoriSonego/Andrea Vavassori – Nikola Mektic/Mate PavicMektic/Mate Pavic (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Jeff WolfWolf – Mikael YmerYmer (0-0) – H2H and prediction
