Pablo Carreno-Busta and Alexander Bublik will play each other in the 2nd round of the ATP1000 Master in Monte-Carlo for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 4:00 pm on COURT 9. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pablo Carreno-Busta who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Pablo Carreno-Busta is the pick to win this match.
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 1.38
Alexander Bublik -> 3.15
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Prediction and head to head Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Alexander Bublik
This will be the 3rd time that Pablo Carreno-Busta and Alexander Bublik clash against each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Carreno-Busta (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they played each other, Carreno-Busta won 6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(3) in the final in Chengdu back in 2019.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 41-28 | 25-10 | 14-14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 10-12 | 7-6 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-25 | 19-8 | 11-9 | 5-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-18 | 14-8 | 17-4 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 19, Carreno-Busta reached the 2nd round after beating Sebastian Baez 6-4 4-6 6-2.
In the 1st round, Carreno-Busta defeated Baez (6-4 4-6 6-2). During the match, Carreno-Busta scored 99 points vs Baez’s 86. Carreno-Busta was exceptionally aggressive to blast 49 winners.
Talking about the service games, Carreno-Busta blasted 2 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Pablo Carreno-Busta lost the serve 3 times and he saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Carreno-Busta put 75% of his first serves in, winning 67% (49/73) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (12/24) on the 2nd serve. Carreno-Busta broke Baez 5 times after converting 83% of his break points (5/6).
Carreno-Busta has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (379-209). 1-1 on clay in 2022. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Carreno-Busta has an overall 211-95 record in the last years on clay.
Pablo has an overall 10-6 win-loss record in 2022, 1-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Alexander Bublik
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 48-24 | 12-11 | 23-6 | 8-6 | 5-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 25-25 | 10-11 | 5-6 | 6-4 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 28-30 | 3-12 | 7-9 | 9-7 | 9-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-27 | 5-8 | 2-6 | 17-8 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-30 | 14-12 | 4-6 | 10-8 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 36, the Kazakhstani got to the 2nd round after defeating Stan Wawrinka 3-6 7-5 6-2.
In the 1st round against Wawrinka, The Kazakhstani recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 7-5 6-2). During the match Bublik scored 102 points vs Wawrinka’s 98. Bublik was quite aggressive to blast 35 winners.
About the serving games, Bublik made 14 aces and he was not very consistent on his 2nd serve to score 11 double faults. Alexander Bublik lost the serve 3 times and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Bublik put 42% of his first serves in, winning 83% (35/42) of the points behind his 1st serve and 41% (24/59) on the 2nd serve. Bublik broke Wawrinka 5 times after converting 45% of his break points (5/11).
His best result of the year was winning the title in in Montpellier where he beat Alexander Zverev in the final 6-4 6-3.
The Kazakhstani has an overall 12-7 win-loss record in 2022, 1-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Carreno-Busta | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 28 | 29 |
| Pts | 99-86 | 102-98 |
| Total Points | 185 | 200 |
| Winners | 49 | 35 |
| %Winners | 49% | 34% |
Both Carreno-Busta and Bublik played 1 match. Both players lost a set in the event. Pablo Carreno-Busta surrendered 1 set, while Alexander Bublik lost 1 set. Talking about their workload, Carreno-Busta and Bublik have played the same amount of sets 3. However, Carreno-Busta played 1 game less than Bublik. The Spaniard scored 49 winners (49% of the total points). On the other side, The Kazakhstani made 35 winners (34%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Carreno-Busta | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 2 | 14 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 14 |
| 1st in | 73/97 | 42/101 |
| %1st in | 75% | 42% |
| 1st pts | 49/73 | 35/42 |
| %1st pts | 67% | 83% |
| 2nd pts | 12/24 | 24/59 |
| %2nd pts | 50% | 41% |
Carreno-Busta recorded 2 aces . Bublik bagged 14 aces . Carreno-Busta won 67% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Bublik won 83% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 41% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Carreno-Busta | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 5 | 5 |
| Converted | 5/6 | 5/11 |
| % Converted | 83% | 45% |
| Conceded | 12 | 8 |
| Saved | 9 | 5 |
| % Saved | 75% | 63% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 |
The Spaniard broke his opponent 5 times with a 83% conversion rate. The Spaniard lost his serve 3 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded. Alexander broke his opponent 5 times with a 45% conversion rate. Alexander conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded.
| Carreno-Busta | |||
| R1 Baez |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 4-6 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 28 | |
| pts | 99-86 | 99-86 | |
| Total points | 185 | 185 | |
| Winners | 49 | 49 | |
| %Winners | 49% | 49% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 73/97 | 73/97 | |
| % 1st in | 75% | 75% | |
| 1st pts | 49/73 | 49/73 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/24 | 12/24 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 50% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/6 | 5/6 | |
| Converted % | 83% | 83% | |
| Conceded | 12 | 12 | |
| Saved | 9/12 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | |
| Bublik | |||
| R1 Wawrinka |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 7-5 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 29 | 29 | |
| pts | 102-98 | 102-98 | |
| Total points | 200 | 200 | |
| Winners | 35 | 35 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 34% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 14 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 11 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 42/101 | 42/101 | |
| % 1st in | 42% | 42% | |
| 1st pts | 35/42 | 35/42 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 24/59 | 24/59 | |
| % 2nd pts | 41% | 41% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/11 | 5/11 | |
| Converted % | 45% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 8 | |
| Saved | 5/8 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 63% | 63% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLLWWWWLW
LLWWWWLWWL Tennis Scores in Monte Carlo Rolex Masters
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Dusan LajovicLajovic (4-6 6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Fabio FogniniFognini (6-3 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (6-3 6-75 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
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- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Marin CilicCilic (1-1) – H2H and prediction
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