Rafael Nadal and Cameron Norrie will square off in the final of the Abierto Mexicano Telcel for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 7:00 pm on ESTADIO. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Rafael Nadal who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Rafael Nadal is the pick to win this match.
Rafael Nadal -> 1.22
Cameron Norrie -> 4.75
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Prediction and head to head Rafael Nadal vs. Cameron Norrie
This will be the 4th time that Rafael Nadal and Cameron Norrie face off. The head to head is 3-0 for Nadal (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Nadal won 6-3 6-3 6-3 in the 3rd round in at the French Open back in 2021.
Highlights Rafael Nadal vs Cameron Norrie – French Open 05-June-2021
Rafael Nadal
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12-7 | 2-1 | 10-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-8 | 23-3 | 10-2 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 24-5 | 5-2 | 19-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 27-7 | 13-3 | 9-1 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5, Rafael reached the final after defeating Denis Kudla 6-3 6-2, Stefan Kozlov 6-0 6-3, Tommy Paul 6-0 7-65 and Daniil Medvedev 6-3 6-3.
In the semifinal, Rafael had a good straight sets win against Medvedev (6-3 6-3). During the match, Nadal scored 81 points vs Medvedev’s 63. The Spaniard was quite aggressive to blast 37 winners.
Regarding the service games, Nadal managed to score 2 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Rafael Nadal conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 11 break points. Furthermore, Nadal put 71% of his first serves in, winning 65% (37/57) of the points behind his 1st serve and 65% (15/23) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Medvedev 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this tournament to conquer 59% of the points he played.
Nadal has an impressive match record in the last 10 years having won 84% of his matches (459-87). 14-0 on hard in 2022. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Nadal has a composed 190-43 record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the year was winning the title in in Melbourne where he beat Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(6) 6-3 and in at the Australian Open where he defeated Daniil Medvedev in the final 2-6 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4 7-5.
Rafael has an aggregate 14-0 win-loss record in 2022, 14-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Acapulco
Cameron Norrie
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24-21 | 7-4 | 8-8 | 6-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 36-25 | 14-12 | 18-7 | 1-4 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 49-26 | 26-11 | 11-5 | 6-7 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-25 | 25-11 | 16-5 | 9-7 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 14-15 | 9-8 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 12 (career-high), Cameron reached the final after beating Daniel Altmaier 7-65 6-2, John Isner 6-72 6-3 6-4, Peter Gojowczyk 6-1 6-0 and Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4 6-4.
In the semifinal, Cameron had a good straight sets win against Tsitsipas (6-4 6-4). During the match Norrie scored 57 points vs Tsitsipas’s 47. Cameron was extremely aggressive to blast 30 winners.
About the serving games, Norrie made 7 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Cameron Norrie was exceptionally effective on serve to win 79% (30/38) of his 1st serve and 79% (11/14) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Norrie broke Tsitsipas twice after converting 67% of his break points (2/3).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Brit has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points he played.
His best result of the current year was conquering the title in in Delray Beach where he beat Reilly Opelka in the final 7-6(1) 7-6(4).
Cameron has a compiled 10-5 win-loss record in 2022, 8-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Acapulco
Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2019. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Nadal | Norrie |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 8 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 69 | 86 |
| Pts | 276-188 | 290-215 |
| Total Points | 464 | 505 |
| Winners | 114 | 134 |
| %Winners | 41% | 46% |
Both Nadal and Norrie played 4 matches. At the moment, Cameron Norrie surrendered 1 set while Rafael Nadal hasn’t lost a set so far. Nadal has played 1 set(s) less than Norrie (8 vs 9). Therefore, Nadal played 17 games less than Norrie. Nadal scored 114 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, The Brit fired 134 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Nadal | Norrie |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 14 | 16 |
| Avg per match | 3.5 | 4 |
| 1st in | 154/227 | 169/244 |
| %1st in | 68% | 69% |
| 1st pts | 114/154 | 134/169 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 44/73 | 48/75 |
| %2nd pts | 60% | 64% |
Nadal fired 14 aces (3.5 per match). Norrie made 16 aces (4 per match). Nadal won 74% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Norrie won 79% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 64% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Nadal | Norrie |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 17 | 14 |
| Converted | 17/31 | 14/28 |
| % Converted | 55% | 50% |
| Conceded | 19 | 13 |
| Saved | 15 | 11 |
| % Saved | 79% | 85% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 |
Nadal broke his opponents 17 times with a 55% conversion rate. The Spaniard surrendered his serve 4 times and he saved 79% of the break points that he conceded. Cameron broke his opponents 14 times with a 50% conversion rate. Cameron conceded his serve twice and he saved 85% of the break points that he conceded.
| Nadal | ||||||
| R1 Kudla |
R2 Kozlov |
1/4 Paul |
1/2 Medvedev |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 6-0 6-3 | 6-0 7-65 | 6-3 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 15 | 19 | 18 | 69 | |
| pts | 61-35 | 52-29 | 82-61 | 81-63 | 276-188 | |
| Total points | 96 | 81 | 143 | 144 | 464 | |
| Winners | 26 | 24 | 27 | 37 | 114 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 46% | 33% | 46% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 27/40 | 31/40 | 39/67 | 57/80 | 154/227 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 78% | 58% | 71% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 26/27 | 24/31 | 27/39 | 37/57 | 114/154 | |
| % 1st pts | 96% | 77% | 69% | 65% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/13 | 6/9 | 13/28 | 15/23 | 44/73 | |
| % 2nd pts | 77% | 67% | 46% | 65% | 60% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 17 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 5/6 | 6/14 | 3/6 | 17/31 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 83% | 43% | 50% | 55% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 19 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 0/1 | 4/7 | 11/11 | 15 | |
| Saved % | – | 0% | 57% | 100% | 39% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Norrie | ||||||
| R1 Altmaier |
R2 Isner |
1/4 Gojowczyk |
1/2 Tsitsipas |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-65 6-2 | 6-72 6-3 6-4 | 6-1 6-0 | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 32 | 13 | 20 | 86 | |
| pts | 76-56 | 95-78 | 62-34 | 57-47 | 290-215 | |
| Total points | 132 | 173 | 96 | 104 | 505 | |
| Winners | 32 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 134 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 54% | 34% | 53% | 46% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 5 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 16 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 45/66 | 60/82 | 26/44 | 38/52 | 169/244 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 73% | 59% | 73% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 32/45 | 51/60 | 21/26 | 30/38 | 134/169 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 85% | 81% | 79% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/21 | 16/22 | 9/18 | 11/14 | 48/75 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 73% | 50% | 79% | 64% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 14 | |
| Converted | 4/8 | 2/6 | 6/11 | 2/3 | 14/28 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 33% | 55% | 67% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 13 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 0/0 | 5/5 | 1/1 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 71% | – | 100% | 100% | 68% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLWWWWLLW
LWWWWLLLLW
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Rafael NadalNadal – Cameron NorrieNorrie (3-0) – H2H and prediction
