Francisco Cerundolo and Camilo Ugo Carabelli will square off in the final of the Santa Cruz de la Sierra Challenger for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 6:00 pm on CANCHA 1. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Francisco Cerundolo who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Francisco Cerundolo is the pick to win this match.
Francisco Cerundolo -> 1.57
Camilo Ugo Carabelli -> 2.4
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Prediction and head to head Francisco Cerundolo vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli
This will be the 4th time that Francisco Cerundolo and Camilo Ugo Carabelli play each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Cerundolo (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on clay.
The last time that they locked horns, Cerundolo won 4-6 6-1 6-4 in the 1st round in the Buenos Aires Challenger back in 2021.
Francisco Cerundolo
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 29-27 | 5-10 | 21-13 | 3-1 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-26 | 10-10 | 19-12 | 4-2 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 36-28 | 7-8 | 25-10 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 44-24 | 3-2 | 39-21 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 36-11 | 5-0 | 31-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 127, the Argentine reached the final after beating Facundo Diaz Acosta 7-64 2-6 6-3, Thiago Agustin Tirante 6-3 3-6 7-65, Nicolas Moreno De Alboran 6-3 6-4 and Hugo Dellien 1-6 6-4 6-3.
In the semifinal against Dellien, Francisco recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 6-4 6-3). During the match, Cerundolo scored 92 points vs Dellien’s 90. The Argentine was very aggressive to blast 42 winners.
Talking about the service games, Cerundolo fired 3 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Francisco Cerundolo lost the serve 4 times and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Cerundolo put 73% of his first serves in, winning 59% (42/71) of the points behind his 1st serve and 58% (15/26) on the 2nd serve. The Argentine broke Dellien 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Cerundolo has lost 3 set in this tournament to conquer 51% of the points he played.
Cerundolo has a fantastic record in the last 7 years having won 71% of his matches (211-85). 6-1 on clay in 2022. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Cerundolo has a compiled196-76 match record in the last 7 years on clay.
Francisco’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in the Santa Cruz de la Sierra Challenger.
The Argentine has a compiled 8-3 win-loss record in 2022, 6-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Santa Cruz de la Sierra Challenger
Francisco has never competed in this tournament before.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 41-26 | 2-4 | 39-21 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-26 | 0-2 | 41-24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-24 | 3-4 | 36-19 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 43-24 | 4-2 | 39-22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 19-12 | 0-1 | 18-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 215, the Argentine reached the final after beating Orlando Luz 6-2 6-4, Cristian Rodriguez 6-3 6-3, Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco 7-5 6-3 and Pedro Cachin 6-3 6-2.
In the semifinal, Camilo had a good straight sets win against Cachin (6-3 6-2). During the match Ugo scored 58 points vs Cachin’s 41. Camilo was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.
About the serving games, Ugo bagged 3 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Camilo Ugo Carabelli lost the serve once and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Ugo put 77% of his first serves in, winning 68% (28/41) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (6/12) on the 2nd serve. Ugo was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Cachin 5 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Camilo hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 57% of the points he played.
Ugo’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in the Santa Cruz de la Sierra Challenger.
Ugo has an aggregate 7-3 win-loss record in 2022, 6-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Cerundolo | Ugo |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 106 | 74 |
| Pts | 359-343 | 251-189 |
| Total Points | 702 | 440 |
| Winners | 175 | 114 |
| %Winners | 49% | 45% |
Both Cerundolo and Ugo played 4 matches. At the moment, Francisco Cerundolo conceded 3 sets while Camilo Ugo Carabelli hasn’t lost a set so far. Cerundolo has played 3 sets more than Ugo (11 vs 8). Therefore, Cerundolo played 32 games more than Ugo. Francisco scored 175 winners (49% of the total points). On the other side, Ugo managed to score 114 winners (45%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Cerundolo | Ugo |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 6 | 6 |
| Avg per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 1st in | 263/375 | 157/214 |
| %1st in | 70% | 73% |
| 1st pts | 175/263 | 114/157 |
| %1st pts | 67% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 59/112 | 33/57 |
| %2nd pts | 53% | 58% |
Cerundolo bagged 6 aces (1.5 per match). Ugo recorded 6 aces (1.5 per match). Cerundolo won 67% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Ugo won 73% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Cerundolo | Ugo |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 12 | 17 |
| Converted | 12/28 | 17/27 |
| % Converted | 43% | 63% |
| Conceded | 26 | 16 |
| Saved | 15 | 12 |
| % Saved | 58% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 11 | 4 |
Cerundolo broke his opponents 12 times with a 43% conversion rate. The Argentine surrendered his serve 11 times and he saved 58% of the break points that he conceded. The Argentine broke his opponents 17 times with a 63% conversion rate. Camilo conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Cerundolo | ||||||
| R1 Diaz |
R2 Agustin |
1/4 Moreno De Alboran |
1/2 Dellien |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-64 2-6 6-3 | 6-3 3-6 7-65 | 6-3 6-4 | 1-6 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 31 | 19 | 26 | 106 | |
| pts | 95-97 | 105-105 | 67-51 | 92-90 | 359-343 | |
| Total points | 192 | 210 | 118 | 182 | 702 | |
| Winners | 55 | 47 | 31 | 42 | 175 | |
| %Winners | 58% | 45% | 46% | 46% | 49% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 76/105 | 78/114 | 38/59 | 71/97 | 263/375 | |
| % 1st in | 72% | 68% | 64% | 73% | 70% | |
| 1st pts | 55/76 | 47/78 | 31/38 | 42/71 | 175/263 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 60% | 82% | 59% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/29 | 17/36 | 12/21 | 15/26 | 59/112 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 47% | 57% | 58% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 | |
| Converted | 1/3 | 5/9 | 2/7 | 4/9 | 12/28 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 56% | 29% | 44% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 26 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 5/10 | 0/0 | 5/9 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 50% | – | 56% | 44% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 11 | |
| Ugo | ||||||
| R1 Luz |
R2 Rodriguez |
1/4 Alejandro Dellien Velasco |
1/2 Cachin |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-4 | 6-3 6-3 | 7-5 6-3 | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 18 | 21 | 17 | 74 | |
| pts | 59-46 | 63-49 | 71-53 | 58-41 | 251-189 | |
| Total points | 105 | 112 | 124 | 99 | 440 | |
| Winners | 24 | 31 | 31 | 28 | 114 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 49% | 44% | 48% | 45% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 36/57 | 41/54 | 39/50 | 41/53 | 157/214 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 76% | 78% | 77% | 73% | |
| 1st pts | 24/36 | 31/41 | 31/39 | 28/41 | 114/157 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 76% | 79% | 68% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/21 | 8/13 | 7/11 | 6/12 | 33/57 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 62% | 64% | 50% | 58% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 17 | |
| Converted | 5/7 | 3/5 | 4/10 | 5/5 | 17/27 | |
| Converted % | 71% | 60% | 40% | 100% | 63% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 16 | |
| Saved | 6/8 | 2/2 | 2/3 | 2/3 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 100% | 67% | 67% | 77% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli (2-1) – H2H and prediction
