H2H, PREDICTION Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno-Busta | ATP Cup odds, preview, pick

PREVIEW. ATP Cup. Shapovalov and Carreno-Busta will face off in the final of the ATP Cup. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their upcoming match

Prediction and head to head Denis Shapovalov vs. Pablo Carreno-Busta

Denis Shapovalov and Pablo Carreno-Busta will fight against each other in the final of the the ATP Cup for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 5:30 pm on EN ROSEWALL ARENA. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pablo Carreno-Busta who should win in 3 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Pablo Carreno-Busta is the pick to win this match.
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 1.89
Denis Shapovalov -> 1.99

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Prediction and head to head Denis Shapovalov vs. Pablo Carreno-Busta

This will be the 6th time that Denis Shapovalov and Pablo Carreno-Busta play each other. The head to head is 4-1 for Carreno-Busta (see full H2H stats), 3-0 on hard.

The last time that they played, Carreno-Busta won 3-6 7-6(5) 7-6(4) 0-6 6-3 in the quarter in at the U.S. Open back in 2020.

Highlights Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Denis Shapovalov – U.S. Open 08-September-2020

Denis Shapovalov

Denis Shapovalov
Denis Shapovalov

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
56
High
10
LWWWWWWWLW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 33-25 9-10 5-6 16-6 3-3 0-0
2023 13-13 6-6 3-3 0-1 4-3 0-0
2022 34-26 22-12 4-4 7-6 1-4 0-0
2021 30-23 11-11 7-6 4-3 8-3 0-0
2020 17-15 8-6 5-2 4-7 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 14, Shapovalov got to the final after defeating Jan-Lennard Struff 7-65 4-6 6-3 and Roman Safiullin 6-4 5-7 6-4.

In the semifinal, Denis defeated Safiullin (6-4 5-7 6-4). During the match, Shapovalov scored 105 points vs Safiullin’s 100. Shapovalov was pretty aggressive to blast 51 winners.

Regarding the service games, Shapovalov made 13 aces and he committed only 8 double faults. Overall, Denis Shapovalov was exceptionally effective on serve to win 76% (51/67) of his 1st serve and 53% (20/38) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Denis broke Safiullin twice after converting 22% of his break points (2/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Denis started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 2 set in this tournament to conquer 52% of the points he played.

Shapovalov has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 62% of his matches (231-144). 2-1 on hard in 2022. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Shapovalov has an overall98-62 match record in the last 8 years on hard.

Denis has a compiled 2-1 win-loss record in 2022, 2-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Shapovalov
Sydney
Shapovalov's Record

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Pablo Carreno-Busta
Pablo Carreno-Busta

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
199
High
10
LWLLLWLLWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 10-12 7-6 2-4 1-1 0-1 0-0
2023 2-5 2-4 0-0 0-1 0-0 0-0
2022 37-25 19-8 11-9 5-5 2-3 0-0
2021 38-18 14-8 17-4 5-4 2-2 0-0
2020 20-12 9-5 4-2 7-5 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 20, Carreno-Busta got to the final after defeating Alejandro Tabilo 6-4 7-64, Viktor Durasovic 6-3 6-3, Filip Krajinovic 6-3 6-4 and Jan Zielinski 6-2 6-1.

In the semifinal, Carreno-Busta had a good straight sets win against Zielinski (6-2 6-1). During the match Carreno-Busta scored 53 points vs Zielinski’s 30. Carreno-Busta was exceptionally aggressive to blast 25 winners.

About the serving games, Carreno-Busta blasted 6 aces and he was exceptionally solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Pablo Carreno-Busta was very effective on serve to win 76% (25/33) of his 1st serve and 67% (8/12) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Pablo broke Zielinski 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Pablo started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to win 57% of the points he played.

Carreno-Busta has an overall 4-0 win-loss record in 2022, 4-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2021. See his history.

Carreno-Busta
Sydney
Carreno-Busta's Record
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Soccer Tonic Predictions

H2H Performance in the tournament

D.Shapovalov
P.Carreno-Busta
5h:13
5h:13
Time on court​
5h:13
5h:13
!
2h:39
2h:39
Last match​
!
0h:53
0h:53
3
3
Match played
!
4
4
84
84
Games Played​
75
75
8
8
Set played​​
8
8
219
219
Total points​
259
259
73
73
Avg point​
64.8
64.8
111
111
Winners
116
116
37
37
Avg Winners​
29
29
51%
51%
Ratio winners
45%
45%
-- Serve --
22
22
Aces
18
18
7.3
7.3
Avg Aces
4.5
4.5
10
10
Double Faults
8
8
3.3
3.3
Avg Double Faults
2
2
111/152
111/152
1st won total​
116/142
116/142
!
73%
73%
1st won %
!
82%
82%
39/65
39/65
2nd won total​
38/72
38/72
60%
60%
2nd won %
53%
53%
-- Break Points --
3/13
3/13
BP won
14/32
14/32
1/4.3
1/4.3
Avg BP won
3.5/8
3.5/8
!
23%
23%
Won
44%
44%
14
14
Conceded
8
8
4.7
4.7
Avg Conceded
2
2
2
2
Broken
4
4
!
0.7
0.7
Avg Broken
1
1
12
12
Saved
4
4

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Shapovalov Carreno-Busta
Match played 2 4
Tot Set 6 8
Tot Games 64 75
Pts 219-204 259-196
Total Points 423 455
Winners 111 116
%Winners 51% 45%

Shapovalov played 2 matches while Carreno-Busta competed in 4 matches. At the moment, Denis Shapovalov conceded 2 sets while Pablo Carreno-Busta hasn’t lost a set so far. Shapovalov has played 2 set(s) less than Carreno-Busta (6 vs 8). Therefore, Shapovalov played 11 games less than Carreno-Busta. Denis scored 111 winners (51% of the total points). On the other side, Carreno-Busta made 116 winners (45%).

Serve Performance

Serve Shapovalov Carreno-Busta
Aces 22 18
Avg per match 11 4.5
1st in 152/217 142/214
%1st in 70% 66%
1st pts 111/152 116/142
%1st pts 73% 82%
2nd pts 39/65 38/72
%2nd pts 60% 53%

Shapovalov scored 22 aces (11 per match). Carreno-Busta scored 18 aces (4.5 per match). Shapovalov won 73% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Carreno-Busta won 82% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Shapovalov Carreno-Busta
Won 3 14
Converted 3/13 14/32
% Converted 23% 44%
Conceded 14 8
Saved 12 4
% Saved 86% 50%
Times Broken 2 4

The Canadian broke his opponents 3 times with a 23% conversion rate. Denis lost his serve twice and he saved 86% of the break points that he conceded. The Spaniard broke his opponents 14 times with a 44% conversion rate. Pablo conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.

Shapovalov
Round Robin
Struff
Round Robin
Evans
1/2
Safiullin
Total
Score 7-65 4-6 6-3 6-4 6-4 6-4 5-7 6-4
Tot Set 3 2 3 8
Tot Games 32 20 32 84
pts 114-104 105-100 219-204
Total points 218 0 205 423
Winners 60 51 111
%Winners 53% 0% 49% 51%
SERVE
Aces 9 0 13 22
Double Faults 2 8 10
1st in 85/112 / 67/105 152/217
% 1st in 76% 0% 64% 70%
1st pts 60/85 / 51/67 111/152
% 1st pts 71% 0% 76% 73%
2nd pts 19/27 / 20/38 39/65
% 2nd pts 70% 0% 53% 60%
Breaks
Won 1 2 3
Converted 1/4 / 2/9 3/13
Converted % 25% 0% 22% 23%
Conceded 6 8 14
Saved 5/6 0/ 7/8 12
Saved % 83% 88% 57%
Times Broken 1 1 2
Carreno-Busta
Round Robin
Krajinovic
Round Robin
Durasovic
Round Robin
Tabilo
1/2
Zielinski
Total
Score 6-3 6-4 6-3 6-3 6-4 7-64 6-2 6-1
Tot Set 2 2 2 2 8
Tot Games 19 18 23 15 75
pts 63-48 63-46 80-72 53-30 259-196
Total points 111 109 152 83 455
Winners 29 30 32 25 116
%Winners 46% 48% 40% 47% 45%
SERVE
Aces 4 7 1 6 18
Double Faults 2 0 6 0 8
1st in 33/54 33/44 43/71 33/45 142/214
% 1st in 61% 75% 61% 73% 66%
1st pts 29/33 30/33 32/43 25/33 116/142
% 1st pts 88% 91% 74% 76% 82%
2nd pts 11/21 6/11 13/28 8/12 38/72
% 2nd pts 52% 55% 46% 67% 53%
Breaks
Won 3 3 4 4 14
Converted 3/6 3/8 4/10 4/8 14/32
Converted % 50% 38% 40% 50% 44%
Conceded 2 0 6 0 8
Saved 1/2 0/0 3/6 0/0 4
Saved % 50% 50% 33%
Times Broken 1 0 3 0 4

Head 2 Head

Win Loss
Shapovalov
LWWWWWWWLW
Carreno-Busta
LWLLLWLLWW
2024 2023 2022
30 - 24
9 - 12
9-10
Hard
7-6
13-5
I Hard
0-1
5-6
Clay
2-4
3-3
Grass
0-1
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Soccer Tonic Predictions
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Upcoming matches in the draw

  • Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-BustaDenis ShapovalovShapovalov (4-1) – H2H and prediction
  • Roberto Bautista AgutBautista AgutFelix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (1-2) – H2H and prediction