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H2H, PREDICTION Naomi Osaka vs Victoria Azarenka | U.S. Open odds, preview, pick

PREVIEW. New York. Osaka and Azarenka will play each other in the final of the U.S. Open. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their upcoming match

Mark Hall

11 September 2020

Prediction and head to head Naomi Osaka vs. Victoria Azarenka

Naomi Osaka and Victoria Azarenka will square off in the final of the U.S. Open for the 4^th time of their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 4 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. Here the head to head stats and the relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Naomi Osaka who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Naomi Osaka is the pick to win this match.
Naomi Osaka -> 1.78
Victoria Azarenka -> 2.18

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Prediction and head to head Naomi Osaka vs. Victoria Azarenka

This will be the 4^th time that Naomi Osaka and Victoria Azarenka square off. The head to head is 2-1 for Osaka (see full H2H stats), but Azarenka has a winning record of 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they played, Osaka won 6-0 6-3 in the 1^st round in Rome back in 2018.

Naomi Osaka

Ranked no. 9, Naomi reached the 1^st round after defeating Misaki Doi 6-2 5-7 6-2, Camila Giorgi 6-1 6-2, Marta Kostyuk 6-3 6-7⁴ 6-2, Anett Kontaveit 6-3 6-4, Shelby Rogers 6-3 6-4 and Jennifer Brady 7-6¹ 3-6 6-3.

In the semifinal, Naomi defeated Brady (7-6¹ 3-6 6-3). During the match Osaka scored 99 points vs Brady’s 88. Naomi was exceptionally aggressive to blast 43 winners.

Regarding the service games, Osaka made 9 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Naomi Osaka was exceptionally effective on serve to win 84% (43/51) of her 1st serve and 58% (22/38) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Naomi broke Brady once after converting 25% of her break points (1/4).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Osaka has dropped 3 set in this tournament to win 56% of the points she played.

Osaka has a solid record in the last 7 years having won 65% of her matches (206-113). 15-2 on hard in 2020. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Osaka has a 140-69 record in the last 7 years on hard.

Osaka’s best result of the season was getting to the final in New York.

Osaka has a 15-3 win-loss record in 2020, 15-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Last year at the U.S. Open

Osaka surrendered in the 4^th round to Belinda Bencic.

Victoria Azarenka

Ranked no. 27, Azarenka got to the 1^st round after beating Barbara Haas 6-1 6-2, Aryna Sabalenka 6-1 6-3, Iga Swiatek 6-4 6-2, Karolina Muchova 5-7 6-1 6-4, Elise Mertens 6-1 6-0 and Serena Williams 1-6 6-3 6-3.

In the semifinal against Williams, The Belarussian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 6-3 6-3). During the match Azarenka scored 81 points vs Williams’s 78. Victoria was exceptionally aggressive to blast 38 winners.

Talking about serving, Azarenka recorded 3 aces and she committed only 5 double faults. Victoria Azarenka lost the serve 3 times and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Azarenka put 68% of her first serves in, winning 68% (38/56) of the points behind her 1st serve and 46% (12/26) on the 2nd serve. Azarenka broke Williams 3 times after converting 43% of her break points (3/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Belarussian has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current year was winning the title in New York where she overcame Naomi Osaka in the final w/o.

Azarenka has a 11-2 win-loss record in 2020, 11-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Last year at the U.S. Open

Azarenka lost in the 1^st round to Aryna Sabalenka.

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Osaka	Azarenka
Match played	6	6
Tot Set	15	14
Tot Games	142	116
Pts	510-403	438-331
Total Points	913	769
Winners	191	179
%Winners	37%	41%

Both Osaka and Azarenka played 6 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Naomi Osaka conceded 3 sets, while Victoria Azarenka dropper 2 sets. Osaka has played 1 set more than Azarenka (15 vs 14). Therefore, Osaka played 26 games more than Azarenka. The Japanese scored 191 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Victoria scored 179 winners (41%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Osaka	Azarenka
Aces	35	16
Avg per match	5.8	2.7
1st in	235/422	263/371
%1st in	56%	71%
1st pts	191/235	179/263
%1st pts	81%	68%
2nd pts	107/187	52/108
%2nd pts	57%	48%

Osaka struck 35 aces (5.8 per match). Azarenka fired 16 aces (2.7 per match). Osaka won 81% points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Azarenka won 68% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 48% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Osaka	Azarenka
Won	21	31
Converted	21/59	31/63
% Converted	36%	49%
Conceded	21	26
Saved	16	13
% Saved	76%	50%
Times Broken	5	13

Osaka broke her opponents 21 times with a 36% conversion rate. Osaka conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 76% of the break points that she conceded. Azarenka broke her opponents 31 times with a 49% conversion rate. Azarenka conceded her serve 13 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded.

	R1 Doi	R2 Giorgi	R3 Kostyuk	R4 Kontaveit	1/4 Rogers	1/2 Brady	Total
Osaka
Score	6-2 5-7 6-2	6-1 6-2	6-3 6-7⁴ 6-2	6-3 6-4	6-3 6-4	7-6¹ 3-6 6-3
Tot Set	3	2	3	2	2	3	15
Tot Games	28	15	30	19	19	31	142
pts	96-80	62-40	116-98	69-52	68-45	99-88	510-403
Total points	176	102	214	121	113	187	913
Winners	35	26	40	27	20	43	191
%Winners	36%	42%	34%	39%	29%	43%	37%
SERVE
Aces	6	4	5	4	7	9	35
Double Faults	1	2	3	2	1	1	10
1st in	46/91	33/52	49/94	32/45	24/51	51/89	235/422
% 1st in	51%	63%	52%	71%	47%	57%	56%
1st pts	35/46	26/33	40/49	27/32	20/24	43/51	191/235
% 1st pts	76%	79%	82%	84%	83%	84%	81%
2nd pts	24/45	10/19	23/45	9/13	19/27	22/38	107/187
% 2nd pts	53%	53%	51%	69%	70%	58%	57%
Breaks
Won	5	4	5	3	3	1	21
Converted	5/11	4/7	5/21	3/11	3/5	1/4	21/59
Converted %	45%	57%	24%	27%	60%	25%	36%
Conceded	8	2	8	0	1	2	21
Saved	6/8	2/2	7/8	0/0	0/1	1/2	16
Saved %	75%	100%	88%	–	0%	50%	52%
Times Broken	2	0	1	0	1	1	5

	R1 Haas	R2 Sabalenka	R3 Swiatek	R4 Muchova	1/4 Mertens	1/2 Williams	Total
Azarenka
Score	6-1 6-2	6-1 6-3	6-4 6-2	5-7 6-1 6-4	6-1 6-0	1-6 6-3 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	2	3	2	3	14
Tot Games	15	16	18	29	13	25	116
pts	56-30	58-36	77-63	106-89	60-35	81-78	438-331
Total points	86	94	140	195	95	159	769
Winners	26	28	28	36	23	38	179
%Winners	46%	48%	36%	34%	38%	47%	41%
SERVE
Aces	3	1	4	2	3	3	16
Double Faults	0	0	6	4	2	5	17
1st in	34/43	36/50	45/61	57/84	35/51	56/82	263/371
% 1st in	79%	72%	74%	68%	69%	68%	71%
1st pts	26/34	28/36	28/45	36/57	23/35	38/56	179/263
% 1st pts	76%	78%	62%	63%	66%	68%	68%
2nd pts	7/9	5/14	3/16	17/27	8/16	12/26	52/108
% 2nd pts	78%	36%	19%	63%	50%	46%	48%
Breaks
Won	4	5	7	6	6	3	31
Converted	4/8	5/5	7/17	6/15	6/11	3/7	31/63
Converted %	50%	100%	41%	40%	55%	43%	49%
Conceded	0	5	7	5	4	5	26
Saved	0/0	4/5	3/7	1/5	3/4	2/5	13
Saved %	–	80%	43%	20%	75%	40%	43%
Times Broken	0	1	4	4	1	3	13