As the tennis world turns its attention to the Roland Garros this week, the French Open is being noted perhaps more for its absences and curious seedings than usual.
Serena Williams, perhaps the greatest player of all time, has not been given a seeding for the tournament. Understandable, of course, given how little time she has spent on the court over the last eighteen months.
Roger Federer, a rival to Serena in that GOAT category, will not be there, choosing to sit out the clay court season to prepare for Wimbledon.
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Murray struggles show no sign of abating
Andy Murray will also not be there, as he battles through injury and faces a race against time to be ready to play at SW19. Novak Djokovic, once a man who looked unbreakable, is also struggling, although it does feel like a matter of time before the Serb gets back to his formidable best.
Of course, there are some things that never change, namely the fact that 10-time champion Rafael Nadal, with his freshly-minted Italian Open win, is looking nailed-on to take number 11 at Roland Garros. He is given just odds of 2/5 with Bet365 to win the French Open.
Indeed, it is the raft of injuries and other factors, such as Williams’ return from pregnancy and Federer’s part-time status due to advancing years, that give bookmakers pause heading into Wimbledon.
Bookies’ should be cautious over Big 4 odds
Over the last decade, bookmakers have entered the ‘Big 4’ of the men’s game at the top of the odds without any hesitation. It was only ever a matter of choosing which of the quartet was in the ascendancy to decide the favourite.
In the case of the women’s game, it has been a case of putting Williams’ at the top – sometimes at odds-on – then deciding on where to put everyone else.
Things haven’t changed all that much. The current odds for Wimbledon (men’s) from Bet365 are Federer 7/4, Djokovic 9/2, Murray 5/1 and Nadal 6/1. Williams is 5/1 favourite for the women’s title. Incidentally, the latest Bet365 welcome offer can be used on free bets for any of those players.
Zverev and Cilic could pounce at SW19
The intrigue comes with the fact that bookmakers will not be entirely sure of themselves when offering those odds. Betting companies usually deal with stats, and that means precedent, so you can see why the Big 4 are top of the market.
However, we must ask if a half-fit Andy Murray worthy of being a much lower price than, say, Alexander Zverev (9/1)? Does the struggling Novak Djokovic deserve to be more than half the odds of current world number four Marin Cilic (12/1)? Does Williams, whose time on court of the last fifteen months can be measured in minutes, merit being half the odds of world number one Simona Halep (10/1)?
We know that none of these players are far from finished: Williams and the men’s quartet are among the best players topic of a tennis racket. The point is simply that the bookmakers are taking a big chance that these, admittedly marvelous, players are back to their best in time for Wimbledon. It really isn’t clear that they will be.
Of course, nobody would be surprised to see Williams once again dancing with one of the Big 4 at the Wimbledon Winners’ Ball. However, you can be sure that plenty of savvy tennis punters will be scanning the lower end of the markets, thinking that the upset is on against these half-fit legends of the game.
